LINKING REGIONAL AEROSOL EMISSION CHANGES WITH MULTIPLE IMPACT MEASURES THROUGH DIRECT AND CLOUD-RELATED FORCING ESTIMATES
Impact/Purpose:
The objectives of this project are: (1) Develop size-resolved, spectated emission inventories of aerosols and aerosol precursors; (2) Employ an ensemble of parameterizations in regional-scale models to identify best estimates and uncertainties for fields of direct and c1oud-related forcing; (3) Determine functional relationships that express changes in direct and cloud radiative forcing as a function of emission changes in particular locations, testing the hypoth esis that regional emission-forcing relationships can be linearized over small ranges; and (4) Iterate emission-to-forcing measures as communication tools between decision makers and climate scientists.
Description:
Outputs expected from this project include improved confidence in direct radiative forcing and cloud radiative forcing, particularly over the United States and with regard to United States emissions publicly available, documented data sets including emission inventories of size-resolved primary aerosol emissions and impact measuresj fields describing hest estimate and uncertainties of forcing in the U.S. (at 30km resolution) and the world (at ~150km resolution). Expected outcomes are increased confidence in the understanding of aerosol effects on climate, particularly aerosols associated with source categories rich in black carbon, and an ability to quantify the impacts of decisions that lead to changes in climate forcing, using quantification measures that are accessible to decision makers.
Record Details:
Record Type:PROJECT(
ABSTRACT
)
Start Date:08/01/2011
Completion Date:07/31/2014
Record ID:
249329
Keywords:
EMISSIONS, SIZE DISTRIBUTION, AEROSOL SPECIATION, AEROSOLS, CLOUDS, RADIATIVE FORCINGS, AMBIENT AIR, REGIONAL AIR QUALITY, REGIONAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE,
Related Organizations:
Role
:OWNER
Organization Name
:ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Role
:OWNER
Organization Name
:UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN
Mailing Address
:601 E John St
Citation
:Champaign
State
:IL
Zip Code
:61820
Role
:OWNER
Organization Name
:NESCAUM
Mailing Address
:89 South Street, Suite 602
Citation
:Boston
State
:MA
Zip Code
:2111
Project Information:
Approach
:For emission inventories, we will combine a representation of global fuel combustion and combustion source categories with a literature search on size-resolved emissions. Modeling of direct and cloud forcing will be accomplished with the Climate Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) over the United States, integrated with the Optimized Physics Ensemble (OPE) approach that chooses 15 representative cloud-aerosol-radiation and physics combinations from existing pararneterizations. Multiple remote-sensing measurements will be compared to select these ensemble members. The same fields will be estimated globally using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) coupled with the OPE. We will explore methods of apportioning forCing among source categories and compare linear apportionment with differences between model results with and without Source categories. We will iterate measures that quantify regional climate forcing with state decision makers to develop presentations that are understood by non-scientific policy audiences.
Cost
:$899,773.00
Research Component
:Global Climate Change
Project IDs:
ID Code
:R835034
Project type
:EPA Grant