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A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida
Citation:
ROGERS, J. E. AND M. J. RUSSELL. A landscape based, systems dynamic model for assessing impacts of urban development on water quality for sustainable seagrass growth in Tampa Bay, Florida. Presented at EcoSummit 2012, Columbus, OH, September 30 - October 05, 2012.
Impact/Purpose:
Presentataion for 4th Annual EcoSummit on ecological sustainability
Description:
We present an integrated assessment model to predict potential unintended consequences of urban development on the sustainability of seagrasses and preservation of ecosystem services, such as catchable fish, in Tampa Bay. Ecosystem services are those ecological functions and processes that produce goods or result in environmental conditions that have direct benefit to humans. Translating existing ecosystem condition and function assessments into services is beginning to allow quantification of ecosystem services production, but future scenarios combined with valid stressor/function response models are required to forecast gains or losses due to predicted local and regional environmental changes. We describe a seagrass growth (SGG) model coupled to a water quality (WQ) model, including the effects of phytoplankton (chlorophyll), colored dissolved organic matter and suspended solids on water clarity. Seagrass growth rate is adjusted daily for day length, photosynthetically active irradiance (PAR) levels, and temperature and is bounded by biomass carrying capacity. Irradiance at plant canopy depth, provided by a simple spectral solar irradiance model, is adjusted for water quality parameters (e.g. phytoplankton biomass, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and total suspended solids (TSS)). Nutrient (N and P), TSS and CDOM inputs are derived from fresh water flow from gauged and ungauged drainage basins and point sources. Atmospheric inputs of N species, as well as N and P inputs from ground water and sediment exchange, are also included. The model will be used as a predictive tool to assess potential impacts of alternative future scenarios for urban growth in the Tampa Bay region. It will also estimate the sustainability of water quality, seagrass coverage and catchable fish resulting from future changes in nutrient inputs to the bay due to user- driven alterations of the watershed landscape, point source additions or deletions, and changes in atmospheric deposition.