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Real-Time Estimation of Small-Area Populations with Human Biomarkers in Sewage
Citation:
DAUGHTON, C. G. Real-Time Estimation of Small-Area Populations with Human Biomarkers in Sewage. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 414:6-12, (2012).
Impact/Purpose:
The critical importance of knowing the size of discrete human populations was clear millennia ago with rulers who needed to gauge the pool of those who could pay taxes or serve in militia; the Bible’s book of Numbers is but one example. Today the importance continues to grow, driven by questions germane to economics, marketing, politics, sociology, public health and safety (e.g., epidemiology, disease management; assessment of natural hazards; disaster prevention and response), quality of life, and the environment. Population density and its flow play major roles in demands on infrastructure and ecological services, as well as serving as a major environmental stressor itself.
Description:
A totally new approach is conceptualized for measuring small-area human populations by using biomarkers in sewage. The basis for the concept (SCIM: Sewage Chemical-Information Mining) is supported by a comprehensive examination and synthesis of data published across several disciplines, including medicine, microbiology, clinical chemistry, and environmental science. Accurate measures of human populations are fundamental to numerous disciplines, including economics, marketing, politics, sociology, public health and safety (e.g., disease management; assessment of natural hazards; disaster prevention and response), quality of life, and the environment. Knowing the size, distribution, and flow of a small-area (local) population facilitates understanding the numerous and complex linkages and interactions between humans and the environment. Examples include material-flow (substance-flow) analysis, determining the magnitude of per capita contribution of pollutant loadings to watersheds, or forecasting future impacts of local populations on the environment or a population's demands on resources. While no definitive approach exists for measuring small-area populations, census-taking is a longestablished convention. No approach exists, however, for gauging small-area populations in realtime, as none is able to capture population dynamics, which involve transient changes (e.g., daily influx and efflux) and lasting changes (e.g., births, deaths, and change in residence). Accurate measurement of small-area populations in real time has never been possible but is essential for facilitating the design of more sustainable communities. Real-time measurement would provide communities the capability of testing what-if scenarios in design and policy decisions.
URLs/Downloads:
S0048969711012800
DAUGHTON 11-052 - FINAL REVISED - DAUGHTON (31OCT11).PDF (PDF, NA pp, 267 KB, about PDF)
DAUGHTON 11-052 JOURNAL ARTICLE SOTE - POPULATION SIZE ESTIMATES VIA SEWAGE - FINAL WITH ENDNOTE REMOVED _18JULY11_.PDF (PDF, NA pp, 244 KB, about PDF)