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Comparison of Four Probabilistic Models (CARES, Calendex, ConsEspo, SHEDS) to Estimate Aggregate Residential Exposures to Pesticides
Citation:
Young, B. M., N. S. TULVE, P. P. EGEGHY, J. Driver, V. G. ZARTARIAN, J. Johnston, C. Delmarr, J. Evans, L. SMITH, G. Glen, C. Lunchick, J. Ross, J. XUE, AND D. Barnekow. Comparison of Four Probabilistic Models (CARES, Calendex, ConsEspo, SHEDS) to Estimate Aggregate Residential Exposures to Pesticides. Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology . Nature Publishing Group, London, Uk, 22(5):522-532, (2012).
Impact/Purpose:
The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD′s research program supports Goal 1 (Clean Air) and Goal 4 (Healthy People) of EPA′s strategic plan. More specifically, our division conducts research to characterize the movement of pollutants from the source to contact with humans. Our multidisciplinary research program produces Methods, Measurements, and Models to identify relationships between and characterize processes that link source emissions, environmental concentrations, human exposures, and target-tissue dose. The impact of these tools is improved regulatory programs and policies for EPA.
Description:
Two deterministic models (US EPA’s Office of Pesticide Programs Residential Standard Operating Procedures (OPP Residential SOPs) and Draft Protocol for Measuring Children’s Non-Occupational Exposure to Pesticides by all Relevant Pathways (Draft Protocol)) and four probabilistic models (CARESs , Calendext, ConsExpo, and SHEDS) were used to estimate aggregate residential exposures to pesticides. The route-specific exposure estimates for young children (2--5 years) generated by each model were compared to evaluate data inputs, algorithms, and underlying assumptions. Three indoor exposure scenarios were considered: crack and crevice, fogger, and flying insect killer. Dermal exposure estimates from the OPP Residential SOPs and the Draft Protocol were 4.75 and 2.37 mg/kg/day (crack and crevice scenario) and 0.73 and 0.36 mg/kg/day (fogger), respectively. The dermal exposure estimates (99th percentile) for the crack and crevice scenario were 16.52, 12.82, 3.57, and 3.30 mg/kg/day for CARES, Calendex, SHEDS, and ConsExpo, respectively. Dermal exposure estimates for the fogger scenario from CARES and Calendex (1.50 and 1.47 mg/kg/day, respectively) were slightly higher than those from SHEDS and ConsExpo (0.74 and 0.55 mg/kg/day, respectively). The ConsExpo derived non-dietary ingestion estimates (99th percentile) under these two scenarios were higher than those from SHEDS, CARES, and Calendex. All models produced extremely low exposure estimates for the flying insect killer scenario. Using similar data inputs, the model estimates by route for these scenarios were consistent and comparable. Most of the models predicted exposures within a factor of 5 at the 50th and 99th percentiles. The differences identified are explained by activity assumptions, input distributions, and exposure algorithms.
URLs/Downloads:
Comparison of Four Probabilistic Models (CARES, Calendex, ConsEspo, SHEDS) to Estimate Aggregate Residential Exposures to Pesticides (PDF, NA pp, 320 KB, about PDF)Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology
