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Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios on Water Resources
Citation:
Tong, S. T., Y. Suna, T. Ranatunga, J. He, AND Y. J. YANG. Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios on Water Resources. Applied Geography. Elsevier BV, AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, 32(2):477-489, (2012).
Impact/Purpose:
To inform the public.
Description:
Global changes in climate and land use can alTect the quantity and quality of water resources. Hence, we need a methodology to predict these ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating mathematical modeling and geographical infonnation sciences to quantitatively examine the hydrologic impacts of global changes. The Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was chosen to simulate stream flow and nutrient transport process. Five hypothetical climate change scenarios were generated to cover the possible ranges of variability in the year 2050. An enhanced population-coupled CA-Markov land use model was developed to predict the 2050 land use pattern. These land use, climate, and population change scenarios were incorporated into HSPF to postulate the future hydrologic effects. The results demonstrated that: 1) the method was effective in simulating the global change effects under a watershed scale, 2) the LMR watershed would experience an increase in flow and nutrients under the 2050 land use projection, 3) the wet climate conditions would cause a higher flow and nutrient levels, 4) the dry conditions wou ld cause a decrease in flow, but an increase in nutrient levels, and 5) stream flow and water quality impacts would be amplified when both climate and land use changes were simultaneously considered. The findings also showed that the described approach is a viable analytical tool for predicting future hydrologic regimes, and it can facilitate the fonnulation of more realistic watershed management policies and mitigation measures. Key word: climate change, land use change, hydrologic regime, water quality, CA-Markov, HSPF.
URLs/Downloads:
PREDICTING PLAUSIBLE IMPACTS OF SETS OF CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON WATER RESOURCES
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