You are here:
Minimizing risks from spilled oil to ecosystem services using influence diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon spill response
Citation:
CARRIGER, J. AND M. G. BARRON. Minimizing risks from spilled oil to ecosystem services using influence diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon spill response. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Indianapolis, IN, 45(18):7631-7639, (2011).
Impact/Purpose:
To present a retrodictive causal inference model of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill event using influence diagrams. The influence diagram conceptual models we developed consider the trade-offs in the spill response problem and how management interventions on key exposure-related variables could impact stressors on ecological services. The authors believe that influence diagrams can be advantageous tools to evaluate trade-offs in oil spill responses more explicitly.
Description:
Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises may be improved using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence on desired or undesired outcomes. For the Deepwater Horizon spill event, an ID was constructed to display the potential interactions between exposure events and the trade-offs between costs and ES impacts from spilled oil and response decisions. Hypothetical probabilities were assigned for conditional relationships in the ID and scenarios examining the impact of different response actions on components of spilled oil were investigated. Identified knowledge gaps included better understanding of the transport of oil, the ecological risk of different spill-related stressors to important receptors (e.g., protected species, fisheries), and the need for stakeholder valuation of the ES benefits that could be impacted by a spill. Framing the Deepwater Horizon problem domain in an ID conceptualized important variables and relationships that could be optimally accounted for in preparing and managing responses in future spills These features of the developed IDs may assist in better investigating the uncertainty, costs, and the trade-offs if large-scale, deep ocean spills were to occur again.
URLs/Downloads:
Minimizing risks from spilled oil to ecosystem services using influence diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon spill response