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Building spatially-explicit model predictions for ecological condition of streams in the Pacific Northwest: An assessment of landscape variables, models, endpoints and prediction scale
Citation:
WEBER, M. H. AND J. VAN SICKLE. Building spatially-explicit model predictions for ecological condition of streams in the Pacific Northwest: An assessment of landscape variables, models, endpoints and prediction scale. Presented at International Association of Landscape Ecology Annual Meeting, Portland, OR, April 03 - 07, 2011.
Impact/Purpose:
While large-scale, randomized surveys estimate the percentage of a region’s streams in poor ecological condition, identifying particular stream reaches or watersheds in poor condition is an equally important goal for monitoring and management.
Description:
While large-scale, randomized surveys estimate the percentage of a region’s streams in poor ecological condition, identifying particular stream reaches or watersheds in poor condition is an equally important goal for monitoring and management. We built predictive models of stream ecological condition (i.e., water quality, biological condition, and physical habitat) across the Pacific Northwest (PNW; Oregon, Washington, and Idaho) using the enhanced National Hydrography Database (NHDPlus) as the spatial framework. Using data from the US EPA EMAP-West survey, from the USGS NAWQA program, and from other regional monitoring efforts, we constructed a number of predictive models for several endpoints using 136 landscape metrics as predictor variables. We mapped model results to every NHDPlus stream reach in the PNW, aggregated the predictions across all reaches within each 12-digit USGS Hydrologic Unit (HUC), and mapped the HUC-averaged model scores. We discuss the substantial uncertainties of our predictions and suggest how they could be reduced, as well as address issues of aggregating results to coarser spatial scales (i.e., from individual stream reaches to watersheds or HUCs).