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Potential population-level effects of land-use change and climate change
Citation:
LAWLER, J., B. A. Bancroft, AND N. H. SCHUMAKER. Potential population-level effects of land-use change and climate change. Presented at Landscape Ecoloogy Annual meeting, Portland, OR, April 03 - 07, 2011.
Impact/Purpose:
Climate change and land-use change are poised to be two fo the largest drivers of biological changeover the next century.
Description:
Climate change and land-use change are poised to be two fo the largest drivers of biological changeover the next century. We explored the potential effects of these two forces on a population of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) at Fort Benning in Georgia, USA. We used a spatially explicit population-modeling platform, HexSim, to simulate population responses to 1) climate-driven changes in habitat availability and reproductive output, 2) the development of additional troop training facilities, and 3) the current age structure and early senescence of pine forests on the base. Climate change, at least in terms of its effects on habitat and on behaviorally mediated aspect of reproduction, had relatively little affect on simulated populations. In contrast, populations showed strong negative responses to increased development on the base and the aging of the pine forests. Our results indicate that alternative development strategies and intensive forest management practices have the potential to off-set the population declines that will likely result from development and forest aging.