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The detection and assessment of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information
Citation:
EASON, T., A. GARMESTANI, AND H. CABEZAS. The detection and assessment of impending regime shifts from Fisher Information. In Proceedings, 5th Dubrovnik Conference for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment, Dubrovnik, CROATIA, September 29 - October 03, 2009. International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES Centre), Zagreb, Croatia, Paper FP_140, (2009).
Impact/Purpose:
To inform the public
Description:
Resilient systems typically exhibit periodic fluctuations yet are able to withstand perturbations while maintaining functionality. However, it is possible for a system to reach a dynamic threshold and shift to another set of system conditions. These regime shifts have been demonstrated for a multitude of ecological and social systems, and often have significant ecological and economic consequences. While much research has been focused on detecting regime shifts, from an adaptive management perspective, it is key that regime shifts be identified before they occur. Rising variance, kurtosis, skewness, and critical slowing down have all been proposed as indicators for impending regime shifts in complex adaptive systems. We propose the use of Fisher Information as a method of detecting impending regime shifts. As we have derived it, this form of Fisher Information is a measure of dynamic order. In this study, the detection approach is demonstrated through the assessment of model systems. We believe this exploratory research has tremendous implications for socio-ecological resilience, and therefore, sustainability.
