Description:

COMBO is a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai’i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise.

Record Details:

Record Type:MODEL

Record Released:08/26/2010

Record Last Revised:08/26/2010

Record ID: 227622

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Model Detail:

Model Evaluation :COMBO has been evaluated and reviewed in several peer-reviewed publications, including the following:
R.W. Buddemeier, P.L. Jokiel, K.M. Zimmerman, D.R. Lane, J. M. Carey, G.C. Bohling, J.A. Martinich, 2008. A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry. Limnology and Oceanography Methods, 6:395-411.

R.W. Buddemeier, D.R. Lane, J.A. Martinich, 2010. Modeling Regional Coral Reef Responses to Global Warming and Changes in Ocean Chemistry: Caribbean Case Study, Climatic Change, In Press.

COMBO was also used by the World Bank in the following study:
Vergara, W., A. Deeb, D. Mira-Salama, N. Toba, (2008) The Consequences of Climate-Induced Coral Loss in the Caribbean by 2050–80, World Bank Environment Matters Annual Review 2008.

Model URL :http://hercules.kgs.ku.edu/coralclimate/

Model Guidance Documents :http://hercules.kgs.ku.edu/coralclimate/Analysis_docs/Anal_docs.html

Model Download Information :http://hercules.kgs.ku.edu/coralclimate/Models/models.html

modelcontactinfo :Agency Contact:
Jeremy Martinich
Office of Air and Radiation
Climate Change Division
martinich.jeremy@epa.gov
202-343-9871

Developer Contact:
Bob Buddemeier
Kansas Geologic Survey
buddrw@kgs.ku.edu
785-864-2112

Model Inputs :Historical monthly mean water temperature and chemistry data, and projected future monthly temperature and chemistry data. There are two modules in COMBO each with its own set of parameters that can be manipulated or the defaults can be selected: 1) long-term change module (variables including baseline growth and mortality and Omega sensitivity and CO2 selection) and 2) episodic event module (variables including long-term sea surface temperature variation, threshold temperature, and mortality factors.

Model Outputs :The final output of the model displays three different time-series of changes in coral cover to compare the effects of different sensitivities to changes in saturation state, combined with the trajectory determined by responses to long-term and episodic changes in ocean temperature. Output can easily be used in a GIS to develop maps of coral cover changes (point data for various reefs).

otheruserdocs :R.W. Buddemeier, P.L. Jokiel, K.M. Zimmerman, D.R. Lane, J. M. Carey, G.C. Bohling, J.A. Martinich, 2008. A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry. Limnology and Oceanography Methods, 6:395-411.

R.W. Buddemeier, Lane, D.R., Martinich, J.A. (2010) Modeling Regional Coral Reef Responses to Global Warming and Changes in Ocean Chemistry: Caribbean Case Study, Climatic Change, In Press.

Model Computer Requirements:

Model Operating Systems Needs :Windows

Model Hardware Needs :Desktop computer

other_req :Microsoft Excel, however the model is being recoded and will have its own programming structure in the future.