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Using biogeographic distributions and natural history to predict marine/estuarine species at risk to climate change
Citation:
LEE, II, H. AND D. REUSSER. Using biogeographic distributions and natural history to predict marine/estuarine species at risk to climate change. Presented at 2010 American Physiological Society Intersociety Meeting: Global Change and Global Science: Comparative Physiology in a Changing World, Westminister, CO, August 04 - 07, 2010.
Impact/Purpose:
Effects of climate change on marine and estuarine species will vary with attributes of the species and the spatial patterns of environmental change at the habitat and global scales.
Description:
Effects of climate change on marine and estuarine species will vary with attributes of the species and the spatial patterns of environmental change at the habitat and global scales. To better predict which species are at greatest risk, we are developing a knowledge base of species’ biogeographic distributions, habitat requirements, natural history, and physiological tolerances. Presently, the database contains information on >17,000 marine/estuarine invertebrates, fishes, and macroalgae. This biotic information will be coupled with predictions of environmental changes and rule sets to predict effects on species, with different rule sets for specific types of biotic attributes and stressors. A biogeographic-based rule is that species endemic to a single biogeographic ecoregion are at higher risk than wide-spread species. A habitat-based rule is that intertidal species are more vulnerable to changes in air and ocean temperatures than deep species, while another is that estuarine species are more vulnerable to sea level rise due to habitat alterations and changes in salinity regimes. Multiple types of rules will be needed to predict the effects of the “other CO2 problem”, ocean acidification, including those based on the species’ depth range and whether it has a calcium carbonate shell, in particular an aragonite shell. An example of the approach to predicting vulnerability to multiple climatic alterations is given for chitons in the Northeast Pacific and Arctic.