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Spatially explicit population modeling and the reintroduction of a native ungulate: Using HexSim to evaluate release alternatives
Citation:
Huber, P. R., N. H. SCHUMAKER, S. E. Greco, AND J. Hobbs. Spatially explicit population modeling and the reintroduction of a native ungulate: Using HexSim to evaluate release alternatives. Presented at 24th International Congress for Conservation Biology, Edmonton, AB, CANADA, July 03 - 07, 2010.
Impact/Purpose:
The tule elk (Cervus elaphus nannodes), a subspecies of ungulate endemic to central California, was nearly brought to extinction in the 19th century and is still extirpated from most of its natural range.
Description:
The tule elk (Cervus elaphus nannodes), a subspecies of ungulate endemic to central California, was nearly brought to extinction in the 19th century and is still extirpated from most of its natural range. As part of an ongoing restoration program, we evaluated a portion of its former range in the Central Valley for potential reintroduction of a free-ranging herd. We used a new spatially explicit population model (HexSim) to analyze four different elk release scenarios. Each scenario corresponded to a different release location, and the model was used to compare simulated elk population dynamics 25 years into the future. We also used HexSim to identify likely locations of human-elk conflict. Population forecasts after the 25-year period were highest (mean female population size of 169.6 per iteration) and potentially harmful barrier interactions were lowest (mean 8.6 per iteration) at the East Bear Creek site. These results point to the East Bear Creek site release scenario as the most likely to result in a successful elk reintroduction. We found HexSim to be a very useful tool for this type of reintroduction planning and believe that it will prove to be successful for other conservation planning studies as well.