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Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem
Citation:
Sumner, R., J. Schubauer-Berigan, T. Mulcahy, J. Minter, B. Dyson, C. Godfrey, AND J. Blue. Alternative Futures Analysis Of Farmington Bay Wetlands In The Great Salt Lake Ecosystem. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-10/032, 2010.
Impact/Purpose:
To evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake wetlands.
Description:
An Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) was conducted to evaluate tradeoffs between landscape design scenarios and ecological services for Farmington Bay, Great Salt Lake (GSL), wetlands. Model scenarios included both plan trend and conservation "futures" projected to 2030. Scenarios were examined with respect to GSL average water level (AWL) and high water level (HWL) (elevation 4,200 feet and 4,212 feet, respectively). Results of the future scenarios were compared with current conditions. Four ecological modeling approaches were used: a Geographic Information System (GIS) based spatial wetland profile, to track changes in abundance, by class, and scenario; a (GIS) based avian wetland habitat assessment (AWHA) to assess suitable avian habitat; an ArcView Generalized Watershed Loading Function (AVGWLF) model to assess nutrient loads; and a Wetland Cellular Water Quality (WCWQ) model to evaluate nutrient retention by impounded wetlands. Models predict a dramatic loss of wetlands for both Plan Trend and Conservation scenarios at GSL HWL of 4,212 feet. The greatest decline in the highest avian habitat category was observed for the Plan Trend scenarios. The Conservation 4,200 scenario protected the most wetland acreage and highest category of avian habitat. A substantial increase in watershed nutrient loading was observed for all future scenarios. Modeled watershed nutrient loads were dominated by two major point sources. Modeled removal efficiencies of 74% for phosphorus and --11% for sediment were observed for impounded wetlands. The AFA approach developed and used here, is a transparent way of organizing and communicating complex scientific information to stakeholders and improving watershed management decision making.
URLs/Downloads:
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS OF FARMINGTON BAY WETLANDS IN THE GREAT SALT LAKE ECOSYSTEMURL.PDF (PDF, NA pp, 24 KB, about PDF)
Abstract