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Improved Space-Time Forecasting of next Day Ozone Concentrations in the Eastern U.S.
Citation:
Sahu, S., S. Yip, AND D. M. HOLLAND. Improved Space-Time Forecasting of next Day Ozone Concentrations in the Eastern U.S. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 43:494-501, (2009).
Impact/Purpose:
Healthy Communities and Ecosystems - by providing new approaches to characterize landscape features, conditions, and change.
Description:
There is an urgent need to provide accurate air quality information and forecasts to the general public and environmental health decision-makers. This paper develops a hierarchical space-time model for daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentration (O3) data covering much of the eastern United States. The model combines observed data and forecast output from a computer simulation model known as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Eta Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) forecast model in a very exible,yet computationally fast way, so that the next day forecasts can be computed in real-time operational mode. The proposed model adjusts for spatio-temporal biases in the Eta-CMAQ forecasts and avoids a change of support problem often encountered in data fusion settings where real data have been observed at point level monitoring sites but the forecasts from the computer model are provided at grid cell levels. The proposed model is validated with a large amount of set-aside data and is shown to provide much improved forecasts of daily O3 patterns in the Eastern United States.