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Variations in High-Intensity Precipitation under Climate Changes in the LMRB and Implications on Drinking Water Supply Security
Citation:
HAUGHT, R., J. R. NEAL, K. Carlton-Perkins, T. Keener, AND J. Lee. Variations in High-Intensity Precipitation under Climate Changes in the LMRB and Implications on Drinking Water Supply Security. Presented at ASCE/EWRI 2008 Congress, Honolulu, HI, April 14 - 18, 2008.
Impact/Purpose:
To present information
Description:
A systematic temporal and spatial analysis is being conducted at the U.S. EPA on historical precipitation and stream flow over the continental U.S. and their relationships with Atlantic hurricanes and lower Mississippi river basin flooding. The objective is to decipher the periodicity and long-term trends exhibited in the hydroclimatic regime, and to determine their implications in security of community water supplies in the lower Mississippi river basin and the Gulf Coast, the parts of the continental U.S. that are prone to the effect of extreme weathers under the current and future climate conditions. Statistical modeling using wavelet functions shows periodicity of continental precipitation and hurricanes with characteristic changes of trends around the 1890-1900, 1940-1960, and the 1990s. These long-term decadal changes exhibit in a spatial GIS modeling and analysis of monthly average and 24-hour daily precipitation data from the National Climatic Data Center. Long-term variations are also detected in hurricane and flooding events. Based on these findings, one can incorporate the hydrologic periodicity and long-term variations into water supply system design and management. Measures such as water intake protection, using decentralized water supply, and planning emergency management are potential options to secure water supply in natural disaster preparedness. The first phase of the investigation results is discussed.