Citation:

YANG, Y. J. AND J. A. GOODRICH. Timing and Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrological Impacts: Periodicity in Natural Variations . DOI 10.1007/s00254-008-1392-z (ed.), ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY. Springer, New York, NY, , ., (2008).

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Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers, and predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. In palaeoclmatic investigations, climate proxy evidence has unequivocally shown the strong periodicity in climate variations. However, how to use the periodicity in future hydroclimatic timing and forecasting has received less attention. This paper examines the nature of periodicity in the Pleistocene-Holocene glacial-interglacial events and in modern precipitation records, and discusses the use of periodicity in hydroclimatic predictions. The analysis, based on published CO2, ΔT (δ²H) and δ¹⁸O proxy data of polar ice cores and deep oceanic benthic fossils, shows a periodicity in a ~100 kyr, ~40 kyr and 25 kyr duration consistent with Milankovitch orbital regulations during the glacial–interglacial periods. On a fine time scale, millennium and multi-decadal periodicity is observed in the high-resolution proxy variations of Greenland ice cores. A basic periodicity of decadal and multi-decadal changes in ~20 yr and ~10-15 yr duration is apparent in wavelet frequency analysis of both ice core proxy and precipitation data. Based on these findings, a time-downscaling hierarchy of periodicity in different scales is proposed to time and forecast future hydroclimatic conditions at a resolution relevant to the water resources engineering and management.

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