Citation:

PURUCKER, S. T., M. J. CYTERSKI, R. S. PARMAR, B. RASHLEIGH, AND K. L. WOLFE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF LAND USE CHANGE: ACCOUNTING FOR COMPLEXITY WITH AGENT-BASED MODELS. Presented at 2007 Annual Conference of the North American Association of Computational Social and Organizational Sciences, Atlanta, GA, June 07 - 09, 2007.

Impact/Purpose:

The overall objective is to develop watershed modeling tools for the immediate client (CVI) and their stakeholders in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands. This research continues the contributions that REVA has made to the CVI toolset and adds modeling and decision support capabilities for more general use by managers. To facilitate the prediction and analysis of fish health issues by EPA Program and Regional Offices and other environmental agencies, process-based models that describe these processes will be implemented:

1. the expected trophic dynamics of the dominant fish species

2. the spawning and recruitment dynamics of the dominant fish species

3. the bioaccumulation of organic chemicals and metals in aquatic biota

4. how physical habitat and chemical water quality impact fish feeding, reproduction, survival, and migration

To facilitate the use and application of these models, graphical user interfaces (GUI), supporting databases, and libraries of management scenarios will also be developed. Models will be linkable to integrated water quality and hydrologic models that simulate habitat characteristics (e.g., water depth, current velocity, water temperature and sediment loadings) that determine the survival, reproduction, and recruitment of fish and aquatic invertebrates. Similar to what has been achieved in REVA, frameworks based on the biogeography of fish will be developed to apply these models spatially for regional assessments of important fish health issues.

Objectives of this task between FY03 and FY05:

To provide modeling and decision support capabilities for aquatic resources compatible with existing geographic information (GIS) frameworks to evaluate effectiveness (and ultimately cost-benefit) of restoration activities planned in Region 3, initially the Mid-Atlantic Highlands region. This includes the primary interests in evaluating riparian zone restoration (using Rosgen methods) and acid mine drainage remediation.

To develop methods that explicitly link process models and spatial analysis methods across spatial and temporal scales.

To identify knowledge and information gaps in the integration of REVA and process models that enable projections of future ecosystem state.

To create a new generation of quantitative environmental assessment tools that explicitly address issues of scale, are not restricted in extent of application, and enable efficient rescaling (both spatial and temporal).

This research supports long-term goals established in ORD's multi-year research plans for Both GPRA Goal 2 (Water Quality) and Goal 8.1.1 (Sound Science/Ecological Research). This research will provide the tools to assess and diagnose impairment in aquatic ecosystems and the sources of associated stressors and to forecast the ecological, economic and human health outcomes of alternative solutions. Central to this task (as described in Goal 8) is the development and demonstration of methods to the states, tribes and local managers to: (1) assess the condition of waterbodies in a scientifically-defensible and representative way while allowing for aggregation and assessment of trends at multiple scales, (2) diagnose cause and forecast future condition in a scientifically defensible fashion to more effectively protect and restore valued ecosystems, and (3) assess current and future ecological conditions, probable causes of impairments and management alternatives.

Description:

The effects of people on ecosystems and the impacts of ecosystem services on human well-being are being viewed increasingly as an integrated system. Demographic and economic pressures change a variety of ecological indicators, which can then result in reduced quality of ecosystem services and a concomitant reduction in human well-being. Of particular interest is the effect of human activities, including changes in land use and cover, species introduction and removal, and climate change, on the quality and spatial distribution of habitat. However, using reductionist approaches to predict the effects of land use change on ecosystem services is difficult. Consensus concerning model development and application must be achieved among many stakeholders with diverse opinions. The models ultimately constructed often consist of simple approaches, dominated by direct cause-effect relationships, which ignore important feedback mechanisms. In addition, effects of ecological change are complex in that they exhibit emergent behavior that is non-linear and sensitive to initial conditions. These complex relationships can be assessed in the context of an adaptive system. Agent-based models that account for human impacts on habitat can be used to assess these problems better, and can be integrated with ecological effects models to improve planning and forecast effects of land use change, as well as to evaluate mitigation actions under alternative futures.

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