Citation:

NASH, M. S., D. J. CHALOUD, S. SARRI, AND W. G. KEPNER. REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF LANDSCAPE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EFFECTS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION, THE MOROCCO CASE STUDY (1981 - 2003). Presented at NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Newport, RI, June 04 - 08, 2007.

Impact/Purpose:

The primary objectives of this research are to:

- Provide information on the variability in water supply that can be expected under varying climatic conditions. Early efforts will be focused on assembling regional databases for at least two counties (Mecklenberg County and York County) within SEQL region that can be used for water supply generation and model development.

- Develop tools that will help improve our ability to evaluate, study, and model linkages between different types of environmental systems: hydrologic, geomorphic, ecological, and climatic.

- Explore the use of annual and seasonal measurements of large lake surface temperatures as a new ecological indicator of the overall thermal content of those lakes, and construct an estimator of seasonal large lake heat budgets.

Description:

The effect of changes in landscape factors on socioeconomics was analyzed

locally and regionally. The method presented here allows mapping changes in vegetation cover

trends over large areas quickly and inexpensively, thus providing policy-makers with a technical

capacity to locate and assess areas of environmental instability and improve their ability to

positively respond or adapt to environmental change. In this specific example, changes in

vegetation cover were assessed over a 23-year period (1981-2003) using 8 km Normalized

Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution

Radiometer (AVHRR) from decadal composites for Morocco. A regression model of NDVI,

over time, was developed to identify long-term trends in vegetation cover for each pixel in the

study area as a case study for the lower Mediterranean Region (North Africa). Results were

mapped using ArcView for visualization and assessments. Patches of decreasing or increasing

vegetation cover were identified and analyzed; analysis was performed using ancillary data and

published work. A decreasing trend in vegetation cover is an indicator of some type of stress,

either natural (drought, fire) or anthropogenic (excessive grazing, urban growth) that relates to the

life-support function of the environment upon which humans depend. The results can be used by

authorities in developing management plans to preserve or conserve natural resources and

maintain or improve the socioeconomic status of the resident population. Although Morocco was

used solely as the case study for this presentation, the described approach has broad application

throughout the world and thus offers a possible solution for combating changing conditions that

affect human security.

Record Details: