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THE FUTURE OF HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH TO PREDICTING THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF RISING CO2, TEMPERATURE, AND EUTROPHICATION
Impact/Purpose:
1) Rising CO2 and temperature in concert with increased eutrophication will favor the dominance of raphidophytes and dinoflagellates over competing non-harmful algal species; and 2) These effects will be manifested through changes in gene expression, cell physiology, and ecological dominance. Objectives: (i) quantitatively assess the effects of increases in CO2, temperature and nutrients on the growth rates and photosynthetic physiology of HAB species, relative to non-HAB species; (ii) evaluate differential expression of critical nutrient and CO2 -regulated genes; and (iii) carry out manipulative experiments with natural algal communities containing HAB species to determine their responses to global change.
Description:
Recent worldwide increases in harmful algal blooms (HABs) are almost certainly linked to cultural eutrophication of coastal environments. Virtually no attention has been given, however, to how other major anthropogenic impacts such as rising CO2 and greenhouse warming could affect HABs. The combination of nutrient enrichment with rapidly increasing “CO2 eutrophication” and warmer water temperatures could provide ideal conditions for the growth of toxic algae over the coming decades. Preliminary data suggest that HAB species such as raphidophytes may benefit disproportionately under projected year 2100 “greenhouse ocean” conditions, relative to other algal groups such as diatoms. It is imperative that preparations begin for global change-induced increases in damaging toxic bloom events throughout the rest of this century, and beyond. Goals for this project are to evaluate the cumulative impacts of increasing CO2, temperature and nutrients on HAB raphidophytes and dinoflagellates that co-occur in the Delaware Inland Bays (DIB).