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THE SAN PEDRO RIVER: A CASE STUDY FOR EXAMINING PAST LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO URBAN GROWTH AND LAND USE CHANGE
Citation:
KEPNER, W. G., K. BOYKIN, D. J. SEMMENS, D. GOODRICH, C. WATTS, AND P. GUERTIN. THE SAN PEDRO RIVER: A CASE STUDY FOR EXAMINING PAST LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND FORECASTING HYDROLOGICAL AND BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO URBAN GROWTH AND LAND USE CHANGE. Presented at USGS US-Mexico Borderland Workshop, Tucson, AZ, March 20 - 23, 2007.
Impact/Purpose:
The primary objectives of this research are to:
Develop methodologies so that landscape indicator values generated from different sensors on different dates (but in the same areas) are comparable; differences in metric values result from landscape changes and not differences in the sensors;
Quantify relationships between landscape metrics generated from wall-to-wall spatial data and (1) specific parameters related to water resource conditions in different environmental settings across the US, including but not limited to nutrients, sediment, and benthic communities, and (2) multi-species habitat suitability;
Develop and validate multivariate models based on quantification studies;
Develop GIS/model assessment protocols and tools to characterize risk of nutrient and sediment TMDL exceedence;
Complete an initial draft (potentially web based) of a national landscape condition assessment.
This research directly supports long-term goals established in ORDs multiyear plans related to GPRA Goal 2 (Water) and GPRA Goal 4 (Healthy Communities and Ecosystems), although funding for this task comes from Goal 4. Relative to the GRPA Goal 2 multiyear plan, this research is intended to "provide tools to assess and diagnose impairment in aquatic systems and the sources of associated stressors." Relative to the Goal 4 Multiyear Plan this research is intended to (1) provide states and tribes with an ability to assess the condition of waterbodies in a scientifically defensible and representative way, while allowing for aggregation and assessment of trends at multiple scales, (2) assist Federal, State and Local managers in diagnosing the probable cause and forecasting future conditions in a scientifically defensible manner to protect and restore ecosystems, and (3) provide Federal, State and Local managers with a scientifically defensible way to assess current and future ecological conditions, and probable causes of impairments, and a way to evaluate alternative future management scenarios.
Description:
It is currently possible to measure landscape change over large areas and determine trends in
environmental condition using advanced space-based technologies accompanied by geospatial data.
During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer
processing, and spatial analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be
integrated within hydrologic and habitat models to determine long-term change and make predictive
inferences about the future. These technologies provide the basis for developing landscape composition
and pattern indicators as sensitive measures of large-scale environmental change and thus may provide an
effective and economical method for evaluating watershed condition related to disturbance from human
and natural stresses. This case study employs a system of land cover maps generated from a multi-date
satellite imagery database which incorporates Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) imagery from the
early 1970s, mid 1980s, and early 1990s and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery from 1997 to
examine change over approximately a 25-year period. Future environments were examined relative to
their impact on wildlife habitat and surface water conditions, e.g. sediment yield and surface runoff. Both
habitat and hydrological outputs were estimated for a baseline year (2000) and predicted twenty years in
the future using hydrological and habitat process models and spatially oriented land use models based on
stakeholder preferences and historical growth.