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ESTIMATION OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY TO WILDLIFE SPECIES USING INTERSPECIES CORRELATION MODELS
Citation:
RAIMONDO, S., P. MINEAU, AND M. G. BARRON. ESTIMATION OF CHEMICAL TOXICITY TO WILDLIFE SPECIES USING INTERSPECIES CORRELATION MODELS. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Indianapolis, IN, 41(16):5888-5894, (2007).
Impact/Purpose:
To create tools to estimate chemical toxicity to wilflife species.
Description:
Ecological risks to wildlife are typically assessed using toxicity data for relataively few species and with limited understanding of differences in species sensitivity to contaminants. Empirical interspecies correlation models were derived from LD50 values for 49 wildlife species and 951 chemicals. The standard wildlife test species Japanese quail (Coturnix) and mallard were determined to be good surrogates for many species within the database. Cross-validation of models predicted toxicity values witin 5-fold and 10-fold of the actual values with 85% AND 95% certainty, respectively. Model robustness was generally not increased by developiong correlation models within modes of action (MOA) and chemical class; however improved models for carbamates and direct acting organophosphorous acetylcholenesterase inhibiting compounds indicate that toxicity estimates may improve if MOA/chemical class specific models are built with robust datasets. There was a strong relationship between taxonomic distance and cross-validation prediction success (chi-squre = 299.1, d.f.= 12, p < 0.0001), with uncertainty increasing with larger taxonomic distance. Interspecies toxicity correlations provide a tool for estimating contaminant sensitivity with known levels of uncertainty for a diversity of wildlife species.