Impact/Purpose:

General objectives of this task include the development and enhancement of science-based

components (models, databases, data analysis tools) and the conduct of applied research, specifically : prototyping new applications and model analyses (e.g., model comparisons). Specific objectives for this task are formulated based on client needs (development) and peer review feedback (science/research). Two specific objectives that will be pursued during the full three years of this Task are 1) with respect to 3MRA development, the addition of a fully automated capability to populate the 3MRA multi-media modeling data needs via direct access to GIS data sources, 2) with respect to research, the continuation of a detailed model comparison between 3MRA and TRIM, and 3) the application of 3MRA to new regulatory programs at OSW (in particular, preparing the 3MRA to investigate the potential risks from various contaminated media "re-use" scenarios). Other, shorter term objectives (i.e., to be executed in FY2005), based directly on recommendations from the SAB, include 1) the science - based enhancements to the Generalized Soil Column Model (GSCM) and 2) the investigation and application of probabilistic data for health effects in the context of 3MRA risk assessments. As resources and client needs for FY2006 and FY2007 become clear it is anticipated that additional short term objectives will be established and pursued.

Description:

Developed by ORD in collaboration with OSW, the Multimedia, Multi-pathway, Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) national risk assessment methodology is designed to assess risks at sites containing source(s) of contamination that may release contaminants to the environment. Originally intended for application to the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR) the 3MRA modeling technology is now capable of assessing human and ecological risks at geographic scales ranging from site-specific to regional to national. Version 1.0 of the 3MRA technology (i.e., that used for the HWIR) assessed risks at a statistically sampled number of "actual" sites and organized the results into a national distribution of risks as a function of contaminant concentrations in waste streams. The risks were presented as a cumulative probability distribution of the probability of protection (of human and ecological receptors) vs contaminant concentration levels in waste streams. Regulators used this distribution to inform evaluations (and subsequent decisions) of the trade-offs between levels of protection and economic impacts. Version 2.0 of the 3MRA technology includes User Interfaces that facilitate the construction of a Conceptual Site Model (selection and linkage among science modules required for the assessment) and the population of required input data files for site-specific risk assessments.

The 3MRA modeling system technology has been developed based on a software system infrastructure entitled FRAMES (Framework for Risk Analysis in Multi-media Environmental Systems). FRAMES provides the software environment that contains modeling tools (e.g., science-based simulation modules, national databases, etc.) and facilitates the users access to and execution of the science modules. FRAMES is also designed to facilitate the incorporation of new science modules and databases in such a manner that they are automatically available for use with other science modules present in the system.

Together 3MRA-FRAMES represents a truly modern environmental modeling capability.

This research task is connected, via a formal Memorandum of Understanding, to multi-media modeling research efforts ongoing at several Federal Agencies. This collaborative activity provides access to expertise and technologies that greatly enhance the conduct of this research task.

This task is designed to further develop and improve the 3MRA, focusing specifically on the science - based components of the modeling system. Other activities related to 3MRA, including user support (e.g., training, routine applications support); model distribution; and FRAMES infrastructure development are nominally a part of this task. It is anticipated that as additional FTEs are allocated to this work these support activities will be formally incorporated into new tasks. Until then, these activities will be pursued only as time and resources allow. These activities will not be discussed further in the context of this task description.

Record Details:

Record Type:PROJECT

Start Date:11/01/2004

Projected Completion Date:09/01/2007

OMB Category:Other

Record ID: 156843

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Project Information:

Progress :This task reflects the establishment of a follow on task to Task 12555. Task 12555, active from FY2002 thru FY2004, "established" 3MRA as a core technology for application to various waste management regulatory assessments. The following is a brief description of the significant achievements during the conduct of Task 12555.

The FRAMES-3MRA software system was initially developed (i.e., Beta Version), tested, and documented in FY2000. Between FY2000 and FY2003 efforts focused on 1) updating the FRAMES-3MRA science and technology in response to public and peer review comments (received as a result of a Federal Register Notice announcing the completion of a 3MRA methodology for conducting national scale risk assessments), 2) preparing Version 1.0 of the technology for distribution, and 3) preparing for a formal peer review by the EPA Science Advisory Board. In late FY2003 and FY2004 the SAB conducted an eight month long review of the science and technology of 3MRA. Also, in FY2004 a Beta Version of 3MRA Version 2.0 was completed. Version 2.0 added several capabilities to Version 1.0 oriented toward facilitating site-specific risk assessments and further model development and integration into the modeling system. Finally, the 3MRA modeling system was the focus of a model comparison study with a multi-media modeling system entitled TRIM (Total Risk Integrated Methodology).



Relevance :

In December 2001 the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), in its report entitled "Making Sense of Regulation: 2001 Report to Congress on the Costs and Benefits of Regulations and Unfunded Mandates on State, Local, and Tribal Entities" described follow on work on the "mixture and derived from" rules as a high priority regulatory review issue for EPA (see Page 63 of OMB report). Science-based modeling tools, such as FRAMES 3MRA, have been specifically requested by the Office of Solid Waste to support such efforts.

A scientifically sound model like the 3MRA achieves two critical elements for realizing real environmental improvements. Perhaps the most important is that companies, for the first time in the 25 year history of RCRA, would have pollution prevention targets. They would know the concentration levels they need to meet and they could take actions to drop below those levels, greatly enhancing achievement of real environmental benefits in terms of pollution prevention and risk reduction. Secondly, but equally important from a societal point of view, wastes that are not hazardous could more efficiently be identified. In this regard not all "hazardous wastes" are truly hazardous; they are simply in the system because we have not applied the risk tools that have been developed over the last two decades. Hundreds of thousands of tons of waste could safely be managed outside of the federal hazardous waste system if we could use a model like 3MRA to develop national risk based standards for waste.

Major Clients: OSWER - Stephen Kroner, Regions

Major External Collaborators: This research and development is conducted as part of a formal partnership agreement with the Office of Solid Waste (OSW). Lead contact persons are Gary Ballard (Director) and Jan Young (Deputy Director) and OSW staff (Stephen Kroner, Zubair Saleem) at the Economics, Methods, and Risk Analysis Division. This task also contributes heavily to and benefits from cooperative work with nine other agencies under the auspices of a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for multimedia modeling. The participating Federal Agencies include : NRC; DoE; DoD; USGS; USDA/ARS; USDA/NRCS; Homeland Security; and NOAA. One or more modeling groups from each Agency participates in ongong discussions and projects directly related to multi-media modeling science and technology.



Clients :OSWER/OSW Economics Modeling Risk Assessment Division, Regional Offices

Project IDs:

ID Code :20489

Project type :OMIS