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THE NONLINEAR RESPONSE OF NITRATE REPLACEMENT THAT MITIGATES SULFATE REDUCTIONS: THE GAS RATIO AS AN INDICATOR AND SENSITIVITY TO ERRORS IN TOTAL AMMONIA AND TOTAL NITRATE
Citation:
DENNIS, R. L. AND P. BHAVE. THE NONLINEAR RESPONSE OF NITRATE REPLACEMENT THAT MITIGATES SULFATE REDUCTIONS: THE GAS RATIO AS AN INDICATOR AND SENSITIVITY TO ERRORS IN TOTAL AMMONIA AND TOTAL NITRATE. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Impact/Purpose:
The objective of this task is to thoroughly characterize the performance of the emissions, meteorological and chemical/transport modeling components of the Models-3 system, with an emphasis on the chemical/transport model, CMAQ. Emissions-based models are composed of highly complex scientific hypotheses concerning natural processes that can be evaluated through comparison with observations, but not truly validated. Static and Dynamic Operational, Diagnostic, and ultimately Probablistic evaluation methods are needed to both establish credibility and build confidence within the client and scientific community in the simulations results for policy and scientific applications. The characterization of the performance of Models-3/CMAQ is also a tool for the model developers to identify aspects of the modeling system that require further improvement.
Description:
The poster presents an assessment, using the CMAQ air quality model, showing the inorganic gas ratio (the ratio of free ammonia to total nitrate) can function as a screening indicator of the winter replacement of sulfate by nitrate when sulfate is reduced. It also presents an assessment of the influence of ammonia and total nitrate input uncertainties on the CMAQ predictions of nitrate replacement concluding that ammonia emissions uncertainty matters most.