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IMPROVE EMISSION INVENTORIES THROUGH ADVANCES IN METHODS AND MODELS
Citation:
MOBLEY, J. DAVID, SUE KIMBROUGH, AND W. B. KUYKENDAL. IMPROVE EMISSION INVENTORIES THROUGH ADVANCES IN METHODS AND MODELS. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Impact/Purpose:
The objective of this task is to thoroughly characterize the performance of the emissions, meteorological and chemical/transport modeling components of the Models-3 system, with an emphasis on the chemical/transport model, CMAQ. Emissions-based models are composed of highly complex scientific hypotheses concerning natural processes that can be evaluated through comparison with observations, but not truly validated. Static and Dynamic Operational, Diagnostic, and ultimately Probablistic evaluation methods are needed to both establish credibility and build confidence within the client and scientific community in the simulations results for policy and scientific applications. The characterization of the performance of Models-3/CMAQ is also a tool for the model developers to identify aspects of the modeling system that require further improvement.
Description:
Emission inventories are the foundation of cost-effective air quality management strategies. The emission inventory must be complete, accurate, timely, transparent, and affordable. The general approach is to identify the largest uncertainties that can impact model outputs and associated strategy development and then conduct focused research to improve the underlying tools and techniques for completing and processing emission inventories. The research and development activities conducted to enhance emissions data and estimation techniques have increased the quality of the emission inventories used to meet these goals. Over the last five years, the research conducted has advanced the Nation's capability to quantify biogenic emissions, characterize ammonia emissions and emission patterns, develop more refined estimates of mobile source emissions that consider the influence of operating mode, determine the specific species emitted from a variety of sources, characterize fire emissions, as well as measure and characterize hazardous air pollutants. The outputs from this research have significantly improved the inputs used for air quality models that project future concentration of ambient pollutants and helped identify the sources responsible for contributing to the elevated pollutant levels.