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TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)
Citation:
Kaufmann, R. K., B. Moore, S. Piccot, T. Lynch, AND P. J. Chappell*. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS). ENERGY SYSTEMS AND POLICY 15:189-210, (1991).
Impact/Purpose:
Journal Article
Description:
The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, industrial, commercial, transportation, residential, and other. Up to five equations are estimated for each sector simultaneously (seemingly unrelated regressors) using generalized least squares. The methodology is validated by choosing four very different economic systems (France, the Republic of Korea, India, and Poland), estimating demand equations, generating an ex ante out-of-sample forecast, and comparing the results with the historical record, as represented by earlier compiled data. The accuracy of the backcast relative to the historical record varies by nation. The backcast for France, Poland, and the Republic of Korea is consistent with the historical record. The results for India suggest that errors may lurk in the record used as a benchmark to track the emission of CO2 from fossil fuels.