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ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS
Citation:
MATHUR, R., K. L. SCHERE, J. PLEIM, D. KANG, S. YU, P. LEE, AND B. ROY. ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS. Presented at 7th Conference for Atmospheric Chemistry 2005 American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Impact/Purpose:
The objectives of this task include: (1) to continuously evaluate and analyze the forecast results to provide diagnostic information on model performance and inadequacies to guide further evolution and refinements to the CMAQ model, and (2) extending the utility of the daily air quality forecast model data being produced by NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) as part of a NOAA/EPA collaboration in air quality forecasting, to EPA mission-oriented activities. These objectives include developing and maintaining a long-term database of air quality modeling results (ozone and PM2.5), performing periodic analysis and assessments using the data, and making the air quality database available and accessible to States, Regions, RPO's and others to use as input data for regional/local scale air quality modeling for policy/regulatory purposes.
Description:
An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM) over the eastern United States during the summer of 2004. The refinements and adaptation of the CMAQ model for PM forecast applications will be discussed. The ability of the model to forecast the co-evolution of surface level ozone and PM pollution will be assessed through comparisons with regional ozone and continuous PM2.5 measurements from the AIRNOW system. Analyses of the strengths and weaknesses of the modeling system in representing the fine PM chemical constituents through comparisons with speciated measurements from the IMPROVE, CASTNet, and STN networks will be discussed. Preliminary comparisons of model forecasts with available aircraft measurements from the 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) field study will be presented.
The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.