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EFFECT OF CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES OF FRESHWATER INFLOW ON ESTUARIES: REPORT OF THE ESTUARINE RESEARCH FEDERATION BIOCOMPLEXITY WORKING GROUP
Citation:
Alber, M., T. Cronin, A. E. Giblin, R. Howarth, D. Jay, J. Dubravko, N. Knowles, P. Montagna, R. Najjar, B. Peterson, D. Scavia, R. Ulanowicz, AND H Walker. EFFECT OF CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES OF FRESHWATER INFLOW ON ESTUARIES: REPORT OF THE ESTUARINE RESEARCH FEDERATION BIOCOMPLEXITY WORKING GROUP. Presented at Estuarine Research Federation Conference, Seattle, WA, September 14-18, 2003.
Description:
It is likely that the total amount of freshwater runoff that reaches many estuaries, the timing of that input, and the amount of variability (i.e. flashiness) associated with its delivery will all be altered in response to climate change. However, global change models are not consistent in their predictions, so the manner in which these changes will occur is unclear. In this presentation we will first examine the modern and paleorecord to examine how climate has changed freshwater inflows into estuaries and briefly discuss what changes are expected in the 21st century. We will then present a conceptual model that explores the consequences of changing freshwater inflow to different types of estuaries, and evaluate these generalizations in the context of specific systems. We will also explore the sensitivity of different types of estuaries to some of the major changes predicted to occur with changing freshwater inflow (e.g. changes in degree of stratification and changes in residence time) to determine if they can be used in a comparative manner to explain observed differences among estuaries. Finally, we will describe some of the research that needs to be done in the future, particularly with regard to biocomplexity, to better address this issue.