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PREDICTING RISKS OF UNCHARACTERISTIC WILDFIRES: APPLICATION OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
Citation:
Fairbrother, A AND J. G. Turnley. PREDICTING RISKS OF UNCHARACTERISTIC WILDFIRES: APPLICATION OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 211(1-2):28-35, (2005).
Description:
The U.S. Forest Service is struggling with a legacy of over 100 years of fire suppression on the country's national forest lands and an increasing occurrence of uncharacteristically large, intense wildfires. This paper reviews the risk assessment process and describes how it can be applied to the problem of fire management. Risk assessment is the process of estimating the likelihood and magnitude of the occurrence of an unwanted, adverse effect. It begins with a well-defined Problem Formulation step that ensures involvement of stakeholders so all appropriate questions will be asked and answered. The Analysis Phase uses available or newly developed scientific information to ascribe probabilities to the likelihood of fire initiation under varies forest management practices and describes or quantifies the magnitude of effects associated with fires of various frequencies and intensities. The Risk Characterization step combines these two attributes into a comprehensive statement of risk, including assertions about uncertainty (due to lack of information, lack of knowledge, or inherent environmental variability). A sensitivity analysis describes which part of the assessment contributes the most to the uncertainty of the outcome, and whether additional study could significantly reduce these uncertainties. The information about risk must then be communicated in a clear and intelligible manner to resource managers and interested stakeholders, incorporating the four main principles for effective communication (transparency, clarity, consistency, and reasonableness), as well as taking into account general errors in comprehension of probability-based statements. Future developments in the science of risk assessment will include more probabilistic modeling to incorporate environmental stochasticity and experimental uncertainty into the analysis, better incorporation of spatial attributes, analysis of simultaneous multiple risks, comparative analyses of different risks, and integration of human health and ecological risk assessments. Nevertheless, the current risk paradigm is sufficiently robust to provide a framework for reaching agreement on how to assess risks of the occurrence and consequences of uncharacteristic wildfires.