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Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences for a Future Environment

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Abstract:Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has primarily dealt with resources of habitat and groundwater related to human development patterns and preferences. In the present study, future options were examined relative to their impact on surface water conditions, e.g. sediment yield and surface runoff. These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future using hydrological process models and spatially oriented land use models based on stakeholder preferences and historical growth.
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Citation:Kepner, W. G., D. J. Semmens, D. C. Goodrich, D. A. Mouat, and S. D. Bassett. Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences for a Future Environment. Presented at Using Science to Assess Environmental Vulnerabilities - A ReVA MAIA Conference, King of Prussia, PA, May 13-15, 2003.
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Contact: Chris Siebert - (702) 798-2234 or siebert.christopher@epa.gov
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Division: Environmental Sciences Division
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Branch: Landscape Ecology Branch
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Product Type: Abstrct/Oral
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Presented: 05/13/2003
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Related Entries:
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Bullet Item Development of Landscape Indicators for Use in Regional Ecological Risk Assessments
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