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Examining Regional Land Use Change: the Community Growth Model (Cgm)

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Abstract:The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency's Regional Vulnerability Assessment
Program (ReV A) is designed to develop and demonstrate approaches to identify the ecosystems at the greatest risk from regional population growth and economic activity.
As part of this program, a cellular-based model is being developed to examine alternative land use patterns that could be influenced by policy changes. This presentation demonstrates various uses of the model to determine the conversion of forest and agricultural land uses to urban land uses under a variety of possible scenarios. The model itself examines possible policy changes in urban growth as reflected through the model spread equations, spontaneous growth equations and planned development assumptions. Concentration is placed on how the various model parameters can be modified by the decision-maker to analyze the implications of various land use policies. ReV A has used CGM to examine the population impacts in the Mid-Atlantic region and in the Neuse Rive Basin, and has completed baseline land use change projections by county for the entire Mid-Atlantic region.

Using a series of population projections the Community Growth Model produces a grid that integrates infrastructure and land use. It then calculates the area to be converted to three urban uses (low density residential, high density residential and commercial/industrial/transportation) from the population projections. Next it allocates new urban growth using three variations of a neighborhood function. CGM iterates for each projected year.
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Citation:Matheny, R. W. Examining Regional Land Use Change: the Community Growth Model (Cgm). Presented at Urban Regional Information Systems Public Participation GIS Conference, Portland, OR, July 20-22, 2003.
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Contact: Chris Siebert - (702) 798-2234 or siebert.christopher@epa.gov
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Division: Environmental Sciences Division
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Branch: Landscape Characterization Branch (RTP)
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Product Type: Abstrct/Oral
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Presented: 07/20/2003
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Related Entries:
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Bullet Item Regional Scale Comparative Risk Assessment
spacer Relationship Reason:   A Project of the Product
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