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Atmospheric Modeling Division Publications: 2005

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This page lists publication titles, citations and abstracts produced by NERL's Atmospheric Modeling Division for the year 2005, organized by Publication Type. Your search has returned 97 Matching Entries.

See also Atmospheric Modeling Division citations with abstracts: 1999,  2000,  2001,  2002,  2003,  2004,  2005,  2006,  2007,  2008,  2009

Technical Information Manager: Liz Hope - (919) 541-2785 or hope.elizabeth@epa.gov

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Presented/Published
BOOK CHAPTER Modeling Transport and Transformation of Hg Compounds in Continental Air Masses 07/22/2005
BULLOCK, R. Modeling Transport and Transformation of Hg Compounds in Continental Air Masses. Chapter 14, Dynamics of Mercury Pollution on Regional and Global Scales. Springer Science and Business Media B.V;Formerly Kluwer Academic Publishers B.V., , Germany, 319-344, (2005).
Abstract: The global mercury cycle involves both continental and marine environments. However, there are special considerations for modeling atmospheric mercury over continents. Most anthropogenic sources of atmospheric mercury are on continents and they emit a large fraction in oxidized forms which are most subject to deposition. Continental surfaces can include land and water, and land forms can vary in their vegetation cover and topography. Fine-scale modeling is more necessary for continental domains due to complex wind patterns that are generated by topography and land/sea boundaries. Planetary boundary layer structure is also more dynamic and variable over continents, requiring more detailed information about the time and height of emission for accurate simulation. A number of chemical reactions of mercury are known to involve reactants formed in the photochemistry associated with biogenic and anthropogenic pollutants released mostly in continental regimes. Simulation of atmospheric mercury in continental air masses has been performed using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.

BOOK CHAPTER Vision for Future North American Emission Inventory Programs 06/23/2005
The NARSTO Emission Inventory Assessment Team, AND D. MOBLEY. Vision for Future North American Emission Inventory Programs. , NARSTO-05-001., Chapter 2, NARSTO (ed.), IMPROVING EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR EFFECTIVE AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA - A NARSTO ASSESSMENT. NARSTO News, Pasco, WA, 29-52, (2005).
Abstract: The NARSTO Ozone and Particulate Matter Assessments emphasized that emission inventories are critical to the success of air quality management programs and that emissions inventories in Canada, Mexico, and the United States need improvement to meet expectations for quality, timeliness, and cost effectiveness. Accordingly, NARSTO sponsored a workshop to address new and innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation. Findings and recommendations from the workshop led NARSTO to undertake an assessment of the emission inventory programs across North America.

JOURNAL Fully Coupled "ONLINE" Chemistry Within the Wrf Model 12/01/2005
GRELL, G. A., S. E. PECKHAM, R. SCHMITZ, S. A. MCKEEN, G. FROST, W. C. SKAMAROCK, AND B. K. EDER. Fully Coupled "ONLINE" Chemistry Within the Wrf Model. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 39(37):6975-6957, (2005).
Abstract: A fully coupled "online" Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model has been developed. The air quality component of the model is fully consistent with the meteorological component; both components use the same transport scheme (mass and scalar preserving), the same grid (horizontal and vertical components), and the same physics schemes for subgrid-scale transport.

JOURNAL The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of An Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark 12/01/2005
KANG, D., B. K. EDER, A. F. STEIN, G. A. GRELL, S. E. PECKHAM, AND J. MCHENRY. The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: Development of An Evaluation Protocol and Performance Benchmark. JOURNAL OF AIR AND WASTE MANAGEMENT. Air & Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA, 55(12):1782-1796, (2005).
Abstract: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implementation of an evaluation protocol. This Pilot Program enlisted three regional-scale air quality models, serving as prototypes, to forecast ozone (O3) concentrations across the northeastern United States during the summer of 2002. A suite of statistical metrics was identified as part of the protocol that facilitated evaluation of both discrete forecasts (observed versus modeled concentrations) and categorical forecasts (observed versus modeled exceedances/nonexceedances) for both the maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) forecasts produced by each of the models. Implementation of the evaluation protocol took place during a 25-day period (August 5-29), utilizing hourly O3 concentration data obtained from over 450 monitors from the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's Air Quality System network.

JOURNAL Assessment of An Ensemble of Seven Real-Time Ozone Forecasts Over Eastern North America During the Summer of 2004 11/08/2005
MCKEEN, S., J. WILCZAK, G. GRELL, I. DJALALOVA, S. PECKHAM, E. HSIE, W. GONG, V. BOUCHET, R. S. MENARD, R. MOFFET, J. MCHENRY, J. MCQUEEN, Y. TANG, G. R. CARMICHAEL, M. PAGOWSKI, A. CHAN, T. DYE, G. FROST, P. LEE, AND R. MATHUR. Assessment of An Ensemble of Seven Real-Time Ozone Forecasts Over Eastern North America During the Summer of 2004. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 110(D21307):1-16, (2006).
Abstract: The real-time forecasts of ozone (O3) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during July and August of 2004 (53 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network at roughly 340 monitoring stations throughout the eastern United States and southern Canada. One of the first ever real-time ensemble O3 forecasts, created by combining the seven separate forecasts with equal weighting, is also evaluated in terms of standard statistical measures, threshold statistics, and variance analysis. The ensemble based on the mean of the seven models and the ensemble based on the median are found to have significantly more temporal correlation to the observed daily maximum 1-hour average and maximum 8-hour average O3 concentrations than any individual model. However, root-mean-square errors (RMSE) and skill scores show that the usefulness of the uncorrected ensembles is limited by positive O3 biases in all of the AQFMs. The ensembles and AQFM statistical measures are reevaluated using two simple bias correction algorithms for forecasts at each monitor location: subtraction of the mean bias and a multiplicative ratio adjustment, where corrections are based on the full 53 days of available comparisons. The impact the two bias correction techniques have on RMSE, threshold statistics, and temporal variance is presented. For the threshold statistics a preferred bias correction technique is found to be model dependent and related to whether the model overpredicts or underpredicts observed temporal O3 variance. All statistical measures of the ensemble mean forecast, and particularly the bias-corrected ensemble forecast, are found to be insensitive to the results of any particular model. The higher correlation coefficients, low RMSE, and better threshold statistics for the ensembles compared to any individual model point to their preference as a real-time O3 forecast.

JOURNAL Modeling the Impact of Air Pollution on Global Climate Change 10/01/2005
JACOB, D. J. AND A. GILLILAND. Modeling the Impact of Air Pollution on Global Climate Change. EM: AIR AND WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS MAGAZINE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. Air & Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA, 24-27, (2005).
Abstract: Tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols have major effects on climate and are the two air pollutants of most concern in the developed world. O3 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) and light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC) also contribute to global warming. In contrast, light-scattering aerosols such as sulfate have a cooling effect. Aerosols further affect climate by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and modifying the radiative and precipitation properties of clouds. In this article, we review current understanding of the climatic effects of air pollutants and examine the implications for U.S. emissions control strategies directed at air quality.

JOURNAL Effects of Climate Change on Weather and Water 10/01/2005
COOTER, E., B. K. EDER, C. ROSENZWEIG, B. LYNN, R. GOLDBERG, C. KNUTSON, M. HAYES, D. WILHITE, J. DECAROLIS, AND T. BARNETT. Effects of Climate Change on Weather and Water. EM: AIR AND WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS MAGAZINE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. Air & Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA, 32-35, (2005).
Abstract: Information regarding weather and hydrological processes and how they may change in the future is available from a variety of dynamically downscaled climate models. Current studies are helping to improve the use of such models for regional climate impact studies by testing the sensitivity of climate change projections to different boundary-layer, cumulus, and radiation parameterizations. Results suggest that regional-scale temperature projections are highly dependent on the choice of model precipitation physics and subsequent event frequency, timing (night/day), and associated cloud cover. Refinements in the quality of climate model precipitation predictions should be pursued in conjunction with studies on air quality characteristics that show significant linkages to precipitation. Changes in the patterns of these weather characteristics will likely be reflected in changes in atmospheric deposition; visibility; soil resuspension; wildfire related emissions; and emissions associated with changing energy resources, technology and demand.

JOURNAL Metropolitan-Scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part I: An Evaluation of the Calmet Meteorological Model 10/01/2005
GILLIAM, R. C., P. P. CHILDS, A. H. HUBER, AND S. RAMAN. Metropolitan-Scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part I: An Evaluation of the Calmet Meteorological Model. PURE & APPLIED GEOPHYSICS. Springer, New York, NY, 162(10):1981-2003, (2005).
Abstract: Following the collapse of the New York City World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2001, Local, State and Federal agencies initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the impact of emissions from the disaster. A study of the estimated pathway that a potential plume of emissions would likely track was completed to support the U.S. EPA¿s initial exposure assessments. The plume from the World Trade Center was estimated using the CALMET-CALPUFF dispersion modeling system. The following is the first of two reports that compares several meteorological models, including the CALMET diagnostic model, the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and 5th Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) in the complex marine-influenced urban setting of NYC. Results indicate wind speed, in most cases, is greater in CALMET than the two mesoscale models because the CALMET micrometeorological processor does not properly adjust the wind field for surface roughness variations that exits in a major built-up urban area. Small-scale circulations, which were resolved by the mesoscale models, were not well simulated by CALMET. Independent wind observations in Lower Manhattan suggest that the wind direction estimates of CALMET possess a high degree of error because of the urban influence. Wind speed is on average 1.5 ms-1 stronger in CALMET than what observations indicate. The wind direction downwind of the city is rotated 25-34º clockwise in CALMET relative to what observations indicate.

JOURNAL Metropolitan-Scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part II: An Application of the Calpuff Plume Model 10/01/2005
GILLIAM, R. C., A. H. HUBER, AND S. RAMAN. Metropolitan-Scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part II: An Application of the Calpuff Plume Model. PURE & APPLIED GEOPHYSICS. Springer, New York, NY, 162(10):2005-2028, (2005).
Abstract: Following the collapse of the New York World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001, Local, State, and Federal agencies initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the ongoing impacts of emissions from the disaster. The collapse of the World Trade Center towers and associated fires that lasted for several weeks resulted at times in a noticeable plume of material that was dispersed around the Metropolitan New York City (NYC) area. In general, the plume was only noticeable for a short period of time following September 11, and only apparent close to the World Trade Center site. A study of the estimated pathway, which the plume of WTC material would likely follow, was completed to support the United States Environmental Protection Agency's 2002 initial exposure assessments. In this study, the WTC emissions were simulated using the CALMET-CALPUFF model in order to examine the general spatial and temporal dispersion patterns over NYC. This paper presents the results of the CALPUFF plume model in terms of plume dilution and location, since the exact source strength remains unknown. Independent observations of PM2.5 are used to support the general dispersion features calculated by the model. Results indicate that the simulated plume matched well with an abnormal increase (600-1000% of normal) in PM2.5 two nights after the WTC collapse as the plume rotated north to southeast, towards parts of NYC. Very little if any evidence of the plume signature was noted during a similar flow scenario a week after September 11. This leads to the conclusion that other than areas within a few kilometers from the WTC site, the PM2.5 plume was not observable over NYC's background concentration after the first few days.

JOURNAL OZARK ISOPRENE EXPERIMENT ( OZIE ): MEASUREMENTS AND MODELING OF THE "ISOPRENE VOLCANO" 09/24/2005
WIEDINMYER, C., J. GREENBERG, A. GUENTHER, B. HOPKINS, K. BAKER, C. D. GERON, P. I. PALMER, B. P. LONG, J. R. TURNER, G. PETRON, P. HARLEY, T. E. PIERCE, B. LAMB, H. WESTBERG, W. BAUGH, M. KOERBER, AND M. JANSSEN. OZARK ISOPRENE EXPERIMENT ( OZIE ): MEASUREMENTS AND MODELING OF THE "ISOPRENE VOLCANO" . JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 110(D18307):1-17, (2005).
Abstract: The Ozarks Isoprene Experiment (OZIE) was conducted in July 1998 in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Oklahoma. OZIE was designed to investigate the presumed strong isoprene emission rates from the Missouri Ozarks, where there is a high density of oak trees that are efficient isoprene emitters.

JOURNAL Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (Maqsip): Initial Applications and Performance for Tropospheric Ozone and Particulate Matter 07/15/2005
MATHUR, R., U. SHANKAR, A. HANNA, M. T. ODMAN, J. MCHENRY, C. J. COATS, K. ALAPATY, A. XIU, S. ARUNACHALAM, D. T. OLERUD, D. W. BYUN, K. L. SCHERE, F. S. BINKOWSKI, J. K. CHING, R. L. DENNIS, T. E. PIERCE, J. PLEIM, S. J. ROSELLE, AND J. O. YOUNG. Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (Maqsip): Initial Applications and Performance for Tropospheric Ozone and Particulate Matter. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 110(D13308):1-23, (2005).
Abstract: This manuscript provides an overview of the formulation, process considerations, and performance for simulating tropospheric ozone and particulate matter distributions of the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP). MAQSIP is a comprehensive atmospheric chemistry/transport/deposition model, which at its inception also served as a prototype for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model.

JOURNAL Size Distribution of Sea-Salt Emissions as a Function of Relative Humidity 06/01/2005
ZHANG, K. M., E. M. KNIPPING, A. S. WEXLER, P. BHAVE, AND G. S. TONNESEN. Size Distribution of Sea-Salt Emissions as a Function of Relative Humidity. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 39(18):3373-3379, (2005).
Abstract: This note presents a straightforward method to correct sea-salt-emission particle-size distributions according to local relative humidity. The proposed method covers a wide range of relative humidity (0.45 to 0.99) and its derivation incorporates recent laboratory results on sea-salt properties. The formulas are given as functions of relative humidity and compared with growth factors derived from earlier theoretical work. Application of this method to several common open-ocean and surf-zone sea-salt-particle source functions is described. The resulting sea-salt-emission aerosol distributions can be used directly in atmospheric model simulations without further correction.

JOURNAL Assessing the Comparability of Ammonium, Nitrate and Sulfate Concentrations Measured By Three Air Quality Monitoring Networks 06/01/2005
Gego, E. L., P. S. Porter, J. S. Irwin, C. Hogrefe, AND S T. Rao. Assessing the Comparability of Ammonium, Nitrate and Sulfate Concentrations Measured By Three Air Quality Monitoring Networks. PURE & APPLIED GEOPHYSICS. Birkhaeuser Verlag AG, Basel, Switzerland, 162(10):1919-1039, (2005).
Abstract: Airborne fine particulate matter across the United States is monitored by different networks, the three prevalent ones presently being the Clean Air Status and Trend Network (CASTNet), the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment Network (IMPROVE) and the Speciation and Trend Network (STN). If combined, these three networks provide speciated fine particulate data at several hundred locations throughout the United States. Yet, differences in sampling protocols and samples handling may not allow their joint use. With these concerns in mind, the objective of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal comparability of the sulfate, nitrate and ammonium concentrations reported by each of these networks. One of the major differences between networks is the sampling frequency they adopted. While CASTNet measures pollution levels on seven-day integrated samples, STN and IMPROVE data pertain to 24-hour samples collected every three days. STN and IMPROVE data therefore exhibit much more short-term variability than their CASTNet counterpart. We show that, despite their apparent incongruity, averaging the data with a window size of four to six weeks is sufficient to remove the effects of differences in sampling frequency and duration and allow meaningful comparison of the signals reported by the three networks of concern. After averaging, all the sulfate and, to a lesser degree, ammonium concentrations reported are fairly similar. Nitrate concentrations, on the other hand, are still divergent. We speculate that this divergence originates from the different types of filters used to collect particulate nitrate. Finally, using a rotated principal component technique (RPCA), we determined the number and the geographical organization of the significant temporal modes of variation (clusters) detected by each network for the three pollutants of interest. For sulfate and ammonium, the clusters' geographical boundaries established for each network and the modes of variations within each cluster seem to correspond. RPCA performed on nitrate concentrations revealed that, for the CASTNet and IMPROVE networks, the modes of variation do not correspond to unified geographical regions but are found more sporadically. For STN, the clustered areas are unified and easily delineable. We conclude that the possibility of jointly using the data collected by CASTNet, IMPROVE and STN has to be weighed pollutant by pollutant. While sulfate and ammonium data show some potential for joint use, at this point, combining the nitrate data from these monitoring networks may not be a judicious choice.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development partially funded and collaborated in the research described here under Interagency Agreements (DW 13938634 and DW 13938483) with the Department of Commerce. The Department of Commerce partially funded and collaborated in the research described here under contracts with the University of Idaho, and the State University of New York. It has been subjected to Agency review and approved for publication.

JOURNAL Aermod: A Dispersion Model for Industrial Source Applications Part II: Model Performance Against 17 Field Study Databases 05/01/2005
Perry, S G., A. J. Cimorelli, J. C. Weil, A. Venkatram, R. J. Paine, R. B. Wilson, R. F. Lee, AND W. D. Peters. Aermod: A Dispersion Model for Industrial Source Applications Part II: Model Performance Against 17 Field Study Databases. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 44(5):694-708, (2005).
Abstract: The formulations of the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee's applied air dispersion model (AERMOD) are described. This is the second in a series of three articles. Part I describes the model's methods for characterizing the atmospheric boundary layer and complex terrain while Part III covers the model's performance and evaluation. AERMOD is a steady-state plume model with significant improvements over commonly applied regulatory models. The vertical inhomogeneity of both the meteorology and the dispersion rates are considered in constructing the plume concentrations in a manner that is unique to steady-state plume modeling. Complex terrain influences are provided through a combined horizontal plume state and a terrain-responding plume state with weighting dependent upon the dividing streamline height. The enhancement of turbulence and dispersion in urban areas is simulated with estimates of population-based, urban-rural temperature differences and associated urban heat flux. Additionally, the algorithms for plumes released during convective conditions are reflective of the current understanding of the convective boundary layer, i.e., the non-Gaussian nature of vertical dispersion and the interaction of the plume with elevated stable layers.
This paper has been reviewed in accordance with the United States Environmental Protection Agency's peer review and administrative review policies for approval for presentation and publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

JOURNAL Aermod: A Dispersion Model for Industrial Source Applications Part I: General Model Formulation and Boundary Layer Characterization 05/01/2005
Cimorelli, A. J., S G. Perry, A. Venkatram, J. C. Weil, R. J. Paine, R. B. Wilson, R. F. Lee, W. D. Peters, AND R. W. BRODE. Aermod: A Dispersion Model for Industrial Source Applications Part I: General Model Formulation and Boundary Layer Characterization. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 44(5):682-693, (2005).
Abstract: The formulations of the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee's applied air dispersion model (AERMOD) as related to the characterization of the planetary boundary layer are described. This is the first in a series of three articles. Part II describes the formulation of the dispersion algorithms while Part III covers the model's performance and evaluation. For use in estimating turbulence and dispersion, AERMOD first characterizes the state of the boundary layer with computation of Monin-Obukhov length, surface friction velocity, surface roughness length, sensible heat flux, convective scaling velocity, and both the shear-driven and convection-driven mixing heights. These parameters are used in conjunction with meteorological measurements to characterize the vertical structure of the wind, temperature, and turbulence. AERMOD's method for incorporating the vertical inhomogeneity of the meteorology into the dispersion calculations is described. Finally, the characterization of representative terrain used to influence the flow at each receptor point is explained.
This paper has been reviewed in accordance with the United States Environmental Protection Agency's peer review and administrative review policies for approval for presentation and publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.


JOURNAL Effect of Vehicle Characteristics on Unpaved Road Dust Emissions 04/01/2005
GILLIES, J. A., V. ETYEMEZIAN, H. KUHNS, D. NIKOLIC, AND D. GILLETTE. Effect of Vehicle Characteristics on Unpaved Road Dust Emissions. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, 39(13):2341-2347, (2005).
Abstract: This paper presents PM10 fugitive dust emission factors for a range of vehicles types and examines the influence of vehicle and wake characteristics on the strength of emissions from an unpaved road.

JOURNAL Examination of Model Predictions at Different Horizontal Grid Resolutions 04/01/2005
Gego, E. L., C. Hogrefe, G. Kallos, A. Voudouri, J. S. Irwin, AND S T. Rao. Examination of Model Predictions at Different Horizontal Grid Resolutions. ENVIRONMENTAL FLUID MECHANICS. Springer Science and Business Media B.V;Formerly Kluwer Academic Publishers B.V., , Germany, 5(1-2):63-85, (2005).
Abstract: While fluctuations in meteorological and air quality variables occur on a continuum of spatial scales, the horizontal grid spacing of coupled meteorological and photochemical models sets a lower limit on the spatial scales that they can resolve. However, both computational costs and data requirements increase significantly with increasing grid resolution. Therefore, it is important to examine, for any given application, whether the expected benefit of increased grid resolution justifies the extra costs.
In this study, we examine temperature and ozone observations and model predictions for three high ozone episodes that occurred over the northeastern United States during the summer of 1995. In the first set of simulations, the meteorological model RAMS4a was run with three two-way nested grids of 108/36/12 km grid spacing covering the United States and the photochemical model UAM-V was run with two grids of 36/12 km grid spacing covering the eastern United States. In the second set of simulations, RAMS4a was run with four two-way nested grids of 108/36/12/4 km grid spacing and UAM-V was run with three grids of 36/12/4 km grid spacing with the finest resolution covering the northeastern United States. Our analysis focuses on the comparison of model predictions for the finest grid domain of the simulations, namely, the region overlapping the 12 km and 4 km domains.

A comparison of 12 km versus 4 km fields shows that the increased grid resolution leads to finer texture in the model predictions; however, comparisons of model predictions with observations do not reveal the expected improvement in the predictions. While high-resolution modeling has scientific merit and potential uses, the currently available monitoring networks, in conjunction with the scarceness of highly resolved spatial input data and the limitations of model formulation, do not allow confirmation of the expected superiority of the high-resolution model predictions.

This work was also funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through Interagency Agreements (DW 13938634 and DW 13938483) with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This paper has been subjected to agency review for approval for presentation and publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

JOURNAL An Assessment of the Ability of 3-D Air Quality Models With Current Thermodynamic Equilibrium Models to Predict Aerosol No3 02/24/2005
Yu, S., R L. Dennis, S J. Roselle, A. Nenes, J. Walker, B K. Eder, K L. Schere, J L. Swall, AND W. P. Robarge. An Assessment of the Ability of 3-D Air Quality Models With Current Thermodynamic Equilibrium Models to Predict Aerosol No3. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 110(D7):1-22, (2005).
Abstract: The partitioning of total nitrate (TNO3) and total ammonium (TNH4) between gas and aerosol phases is studied with two thermodynamic equilibrium models, ISORROPIA and AIM, and three datasets: high time-resolution measurement data from the 1999 Atlanta SuperSite Experiment and from the 2002 Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS) Supersite Experiment, and 12-hour measurement data from the Clinton site, NC, in 1999. The capability of thermodynamic models to reproduce the observed partitioning of TNO3 and TNH4 differed from site to site depending on chemical and meteorological conditions at each site. At the Atlanta site, both models reproduced a large percentage of observed aerosol NH4+ and HNO3 (NH4+: >94% and HNO3: >86%) within a factor of 1.5, whereas neither model reproduced a majority of observed aerosol NO3- and NH3 (NO3-: <48% and NH3: <51%) within a factor of 2. At the Pittsburgh site, both models reproduced more than 76% of observed NO3- within a factor of 2. At the Clinton site, both models performed a little better on aerosol NO3- (47-58% within a factor of 1.5) than at the Atlanta site but worse than at the Pittsburgh site. Sensitivity test of hermodynamic models with Gaussian random errors indicates that in many cases measurement errors in SO42- and TNH4 can explain a major fraction of the discrepancies between the equilibrium model predictions and observations in partitioning of TNO3. Comparison of predictions of the 3-D Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with the observations over the US continent indicates that the performance of the 3-D model for SO42- is fairly reasonable spatially and temporally. However, its performance for NO3-, HNO3, NH4+, and NH3 strongly depends on its performance for TNO3, TNH4 and SO42-. Tests show that errors associated with SO42- and TNH4 predictions of the 3-D model can result in the thermodynamic model calculation replicating only 47% and 60% of base case NO3- within a factor of 2 for summer and winter cases, respectively. It was found that errors in TNH4 are more critical than errors in SO42- to prediction of NO3- and that the responses of the aerosol NO3- predictions are not very sensitive to the errors in temperature and relative humidity under the tested conditions. The ability of 3-D models to simulate aerosol NO3- concentrations is limited by uncertainties in predicted SO42- and TNH4. While there is feedback between partitioning and the levels of predicted TNO3, errors in TNO3 are much less sensitive to these uncertainties and 3-D models are capable of predicting TNO3 with accuracy comparable to that of SO42- or TNH4.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and managed the research described here. It has been subjected to Agency's administrative review and approved for publication.

JOURNAL Monitoring the Response to Changing Mercury Deposition 01/01/2005
Mason, R. P., M. L. Abbott, D. Bodaly, O R. Bullock, C. T. Driscoll, D. Evers, S. E. Lindberg, M. Murray, AND E. Swain. Monitoring the Response to Changing Mercury Deposition. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY. American Chemical Society, Washington, DC, 1:15A-22A, (2005).
Abstract: There is a crucial need to document the impact and effectiveness of regulation of anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions on human, wildlife and ecosystem health to ascertain the need for further controls. The impact of elevated methylmercury (MeHg) levels in fish on human and wildlife populations is well documented and is the driver for current and impending controls. Scientists and policy makers need to develop a monitoring framework to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of regulation, and the monitoring strategy outlined below was the result of such an effort by a group of 32 Hg scientists from academia, industry, government and non-profit organizations. To monitor change in Hg loadings to aquatic systems and the resultant alteration in MeHg incorporation into fish and wildlife, the proposed monitoring strategy details the need for a comprehensive investigation (in air, water and the watershed) at 5-10 continentally- distributed locations (intensive sites). Additionally, it includes the collection of samples at a larger number of sites (cluster sites) that are widely distributed across freshwater and coastal ecosystems, but associated with the intensive sites. At the cluster sites, wet Hg deposition would be measured in conjunction with seasonal sediment and water collections for total Hg and MeHg. Biota sampling would consist of yearling fish, piscivorous fish and wildlife. To be successful, this program should begin without delay and last 15-20 years. Federal commitment and involvement would be required to maintain such a long-term monitoring effort. This monitoring framework would answer the question of whether change is occurring in atmospheric Hg input and how this change is reflected in a variety of aquatic ecosystems and in their organisms. In addition, this program would provide the information necessary to demonstrate the impact of Hg emission reductions from anthropogenic sources in the USA on fish MeHg concentration.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development partially funded and collaborated in the research descrived here. It has been subjected to Agency review and approved for publication.

JOURNAL Emissions Inventories Then, Now, and Tomorrow 01/01/2005
WERNER, A. S. AND D. MOBLEY. Emissions Inventories Then, Now, and Tomorrow. EM: AIR AND WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS MAGAZINE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. Air & Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA, 41-44, (2005).
Abstract: As late as the 1970s, air pollution was viewed almost exclusively as an urban phenomenon associated with energy production and factories that was manifested as smog in Los Angeles, New York, London, and other large cities. Wark, K. and C.F. Warner. 1976. Air Pollution, Its Origins and Control. Harper and Row, New York, NY. For this reason, inventories of air pollutant emissions were originally developed at metropolitan-area scales. These inventories were used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies and as inputs for air quality models to evaluate locations for ambient air quality monitors. Stern, A.C., H.C. Wohlers, R.W. Boubel, W.P Lowry. 1973. Fundamentals of Air Pollution. Academic Press, New York, N.Y. The focus of initial emission inventory efforts was primarily on sulfur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), lead (Pb), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Over the next several decades, emission inventories evolved to include hazardous air pollutants, greenhouse gases, and other pollutants important to human health, ecological effects, and regional haze. Spatial coverage increased to encompass States, regions, countries, continents, and the entire globe. At the same time, the increased sophistication of air quality models increased the demand for finer spatial, temporal, and species resolution of emissions. As our understanding of pollutant effects increases, modeling sophistication grows, and more information is made available to the public in a more timely manner, the demands on inventory developers will increase.
Although this article has been reviewed and approved for publication, any views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.


PRESENTATION Source Apportionment of Primary and Secondary Carbonaceous Aerosol in the United States Using Models and Measurements 12/14/2005
BHAVE, P. Source Apportionment of Primary and Secondary Carbonaceous Aerosol in the United States Using Models and Measurements. Presented at Asian Aerosol Conference, Mumbai, INDIA, December 13 - 16, 2005.
Abstract: In this presentation, three diagnostic evaluation methods of model performance for carbonaceous aerosol are reviewed. The EC-tracer method is used to distinguish primary and secondary carbon, radiocarbon data are used to distinguish fossil-fuel and contemporary carbon, and organic tracer data are used to quantify the primary carbon contributions from specific source categories. All three data sources are used to evaluate the CMAQ model results. The results indicate that current air quality models underestimate carbonaceous aerosol in the Southeast, primarily due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosol from biogenic sources.

PRESENTATION Modeling the Fate and Transport of Naphthalene Emissions Over Continental and Urban Scales 12/08/2005
HUTZELL, W. T. Modeling the Fate and Transport of Naphthalene Emissions Over Continental and Urban Scales. Presented at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA, December 05 - 09, 2005.
Abstract: The abstract describes a presentation on air quality modeling research for toxic compound called naphthalene. The presentation compares predictions from modeling against observations and attempts to diagnose errors in predictions. Conclusions are made for model improvements and tested.

PRESENTATION Modeling the Fate and Transport of Naphthalene Emissions Over Continental and Urban Scales 12/05/2005
HUTZELL, W. T. Modeling the Fate and Transport of Naphthalene Emissions Over Continental and Urban Scales. Presented at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA, December 05 - 09, 2005.
Abstract: The poster presents research on air quality modeling for toxic compound called naphthalene. The research adapted an existing model called CMAQ. A model's application is described and its predictions are compared to observations. A discussion diagnosis reasons for poor agreement between predictions and observations. Conclusions list improvements and future work for model development.

PRESENTATION Examining the Impact of Climate Change and Variability of Regional Air Quality Over the United States 11/15/2005
COOTER, E., R. C. GILLIAM, A. GILLILAND, W. G. BENJEY, J. SWALL, AND CHRIS NOLTE. Examining the Impact of Climate Change and Variability of Regional Air Quality Over the United States. Presented at Climate Science in Support of Decision-Making , Arlington, VA, November 14 - 16, 2005.
Abstract: The United States has established a series of standards for criteria and other air pollutants to safeguard air quality to protect human health and the environment. The Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) project, a collaborative research effort involving multiple Federal Agencies and academic institutions, examines global climate change scenarios as they might affect regional and urban tropospheric air quality in North America for ozone and fine particles. Global climate simulations have been derived from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) version II'(two prime) model assuming the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B "business as usual" emission scenario. Scientists with the Department of Energy (DOE) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have used these scenarios to provide boundary and initial conditions to a regional climate model (RCM) based on the Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Finally, the RCM was used to generate10 years of present (~2000) and future (~2050) hourly climate scenarios for the continental U.S. over a grid of 36km by 36km cells. Results for analyses of RCM surface temperature, surface wind, precipitation and steering level transport patterns on various time scales (e.g., seasonal, annual, inter-annual) have been compared to historical point and gridded reanalysis datasets as well as to the future RCM scenario decade. These comparisons are used to identify some key model biases and uncertainties on temporal and spatial scales relevant to regional and national air quality assessment. In the next year, RCM simulations will be used as meteorological drivers in the development of 5-year time series of present and future climate-driven emissions and air quality scenarios generated through the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Results of the CIRAQ project contribute to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program assessments addressing the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems.
The research reported here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic an Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548 and contributes to NOAA's Air Quality and Climate Programs. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies and views.

PRESENTATION Philadelphia Air Toxics Study: Evaluation of Risk Management Options Using Mira 11/15/2005
STAHL, C., A. CIMORELLI, AND D. J. LUECKEN. Philadelphia Air Toxics Study: Evaluation of Risk Management Options Using Mira. Presented at Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Baltimore, MD, November 13 - 17, 2005.
Abstract: Evaluation of risk management options usually takes place within single programs at the U.S. EPA. This can produce inadvertent tradeoffs among important criteria by risk managers and other decision makers; resulting in decision surprises. This study is a demonstration of a different approach to risk management and decision analysis. In this study, the use of the Multi-criteria Integrated Resource Assessment (MIRA) approach shows how risk managers can examine the impacts of different control strategies on cancer risk, pollutant hazard, and ozone and particulate matter in a "one atmosphere" approach to risk analysis.

PRESENTATION (New York) Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Management Across North America a Narsto Assessment 10/25/2005
HIDY, G., J. DAVID MOBLEY, M. DESLAURIERS, AND L. ROJAS-BRACHO. (New York) Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Management Across North America a Narsto Assessment. Presented at Environmental Monitoring, Evaluation and Protection in New York, Albany, NY, October 25 - 26, 2005.
Abstract: The NARSTO Ozone and Particulate Matter Assessments emphasized that emission inventories are critical to the success of air quality management programs and that emissions inventories in Canada, Mexico, and the United States need improvement to meet expectations for quality, timeliness, and cost effectiveness. Accordingly, NARSTO sponsored a workshop to address new and innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation. Findings and recommendations from the workshop led NARSTO to undertake an assessment of the emission inventory programs across North America. The assessment, slated for completion in Spring 2005, identifies emission inventory programs needed for the 21st century, recognizes the capabilities and limitations of current programs, and recommends enhancements needed to move the programs forward. Preliminary findings and recommendations will be presented.

PRESENTATION (France) Using the Quic Model (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex) to Study Air Flow and Dispersion Patterns in Deserts 10/24/2005
BOWKER, G. E., D. GILLETTE, D. HEIST, AND S. G. PERRY. (France) Using the Quic Model (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex) to Study Air Flow and Dispersion Patterns in Deserts. Presented at Invited Seminar, University of Paris, Creteil, FRANCE, October 24, 2005.
Abstract: As part of its continuing development and evaluation, the QUIC model (Quick Urban & Industrial Complex) was used to study flow and dispersion in complex terrain for two cases. First, for a small area of lower Manhattan near the World Trade Center site, comparisons were made between measurements taken around a model in a wind tunnel and a QUIC simulation. Second, for a small desert area in the Jornada Experimental Range in New Mexico, wind velocity comparisons were made between measurements taken in the field and QUIC simulations. For both cases, comparisons were favorable, with QUIC correctly identifying the overall flow patterns and often matching wind velocities.

PRESENTATION EPA Response to the Narsto Emission Inventory Assessment 10/21/2005
MOBLEY, D., P. TSIRIGOTIS, AND J. VICKERY. EPA Response to the Narsto Emission Inventory Assessment. Presented at House Science Committee, US Congress, Washington, DC, October 21, 2005.
Abstract: NARSTO conducted an assessment of emission inventory programs and recommended actions to enhance the accuracy, quality, timeliness, and affordability of emission inventories across Canada, Mexico and the United States. This briefing provides the EPA response to the NARSTO report and indicates the actions being taken to address their recommendations to improve emission inventory programs.

PRESENTATION A Principal Component Analysis of the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (Castnet) Air Concentration Data 10/04/2005
EDER, B. K., J. E. Sickles II, AND D. S. SHADWICK. A Principal Component Analysis of the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (Castnet) Air Concentration Data. Presented at Air & Waste Management Association Environmental Conference, Oakabrook, IL, October 04 - 05, 2005.
Abstract: The spatial and temporal variability of ambient air concentrations of SO2, SO42-, NO3, HNO3, and NH4+ obtained from EPA's CASTNet was examined using an objective, statistically based technique called rotated principal component analysis. This analysis, which covered most of the time period from 2 January 1990 through 31 December 2002 has allowed for the identification and subsequent characterization of homogeneous "influence regimes" associated with each of the species. This identification of homogeneity across sites has added to the "weight of evidence" supporting regionality of behavior of species, which have historically been difficult to estimate and understand because of complicating factors - both meteorological and chemical.

PRESENTATION Development and Application of the Cmaq Plume-in-Grid Model 09/28/2005
GODOWITCH, J. M. Development and Application of the Cmaq Plume-in-Grid Model. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: The poster depicts the dynamic and chemical processes simulated by the Plume-in-Grid (PinG) model, which is fully integrated in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Eulerian grid model. An example set of plume section paths during the subgrid phase is displayed within a model test domain. Selected PinG model simulation results are also presented of ozone and aerosol sulfate concentrations within subgrid scale plumes. Excess ozone and sulfate are generated above background levels downwind of the major point sources with generally more sulfate above background formed in the lower NOx source plumes. Results from a model application for a continental domain with a 36km grid cell size are also shown from model runs with and without the PinG approach for a particular day from the July 2001 modeling period.

PRESENTATION Changes to the Biogenic Emission Inventory System Version 3 (Beis3) 09/27/2005
SCHWEDE, D. B., G. POULIOT, AND T. E. PIERCE. Changes to the Biogenic Emission Inventory System Version 3 (Beis3). Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This extended abstract describes recent changes to the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3) that were completed in preparation for the 2005 release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Changes to the model affect the calculated emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes. CMAQ predicted concentrations of ozone and secondary organic aerosols were primarily reduced due to the changes in emissions, and preliminary results indicate slightly improved model performance when compared to observed concentrations. This work will be presented at the 2005 Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Workshop.

PRESENTATION Modulating Emissions from Electric Generating Units as a Function of Meteorological Variables 09/27/2005
BATTYE, W., W. WARREN-HICKS, S. FUDGE, AND T. E. PIERCE. Modulating Emissions from Electric Generating Units as a Function of Meteorological Variables. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: Electric Generating Units (EGUs) are an important source of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which react with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight to form ozone. Emissions from EGUs are believed to vary depending on short-term demands for electricity; for instance, increased use of air conditioning on hot summer days is expected to cause increases in electricity demand, and consequent increases in EGU emissions. The purpose of this effort is to analyze Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) data from 2003 for more than 5000 EGUs across the country and to relate EGU NOx emissions to temperature and other meteorological variables. Linear regression models were developed to calculate daily modulation factors as a function of meteorological parameters and day type for individual regions across the country. The explained variance, r2, for the regression model ranged from 0.54 in Montana to above 0.9 for several states. The r2 statistic is above 0.75 for most regions. As an example, for North Carolina, the regression model improved the predicted emissions over seasonal averages, with the mean error dropping from 21% to 9%. This effort has demonstrated that NOx emissions from EGUs can be correlated to meteorological parameters. In addition, regression results indicate that meteorological parameters can have a significant impact on NOx emissions. NOAA is currently testing the regression models for NOx emissions in its Eta-CMAQ ozone forecast model system.

PRESENTATION A Comprehensive Evaluation of the Eta-Cmaq Forecast Model Performance for O3, Its Related Precursors, and Meteorological Parameters During the 2004 Icartt Study 09/27/2005
YU, S., R. MATHUR, D. KANG, K. L. SCHERE, B. K. EDER, J. PLEIM, AND T. L. OTTE. A Comprehensive Evaluation of the Eta-Cmaq Forecast Model Performance for O3, Its Related Precursors, and Meteorological Parameters During the 2004 Icartt Study. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference , Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: In this study, the ability of the Eta-CMAQ forecast model to represent the vertical profiles of O3, related chemical species (CO, NO, NO2, H2O2, CH2O, HNO3, SO2, PAN, isoprene, toluene), and meteorological parameters (liquid water content, water vapor, temperature, wind speed and direction and pressure) is assessed through comparisons with the observational data from the aircraft (NOAA P-3 and NASA DC-8) flights and Lidar during the 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) field experiments. The spatial and temporal performance of the model for surface O3 over the eastern U.S during this period is examined through comparison with observations from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. On the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest surface sites, a variety of diagnostic tests were used to examine the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3.

PRESENTATION Recent Developments in the Cmaq Model Aerosol Module 09/27/2005
BHAVE, P., CHRIS NOLTE, JON PLEIM, D. B. SCHWEDE, AND S. J. ROSELLE. Recent Developments in the Cmaq Model Aerosol Module. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This poster describes changes that were made to the aerosol module between CMAQ v4.4 and v4.5, as well as the effects of these changes on CMAQ model results. New aerosol diagnostic tools released with CMAQ v4.5 are also described and some illustrative results are provided

PRESENTATION Incorporating Sub-Grid Variability Concentration Distributions With Cmaq 09/27/2005
CHING, J. K., V. ISAKOV, J. HERWEHE, AND M. A. MAJEED. Incorporating Sub-Grid Variability Concentration Distributions With Cmaq. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This paper addresses a prototype demonstration of using fine scale modeling techniques for CMAQ application.

PRESENTATION The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool: Meteorology Module 09/27/2005
GILLIAM, R. C., W. APPEL, AND S. PHILLIPS. The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool: Meteorology Module. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: Air quality modeling is continuously expanding in sophistication and function. Currently, air quality models are being used for research, forecasting, regulatory related emission control strategies, and other applications. Results from air-quality model applications are closely linked to meteorological model that drives the dispersion, deposition, chemical transport, and chemical processes. Thus, modeling systems should be evaluated by considering all components/models involved.

PRESENTATION Mcipv 3: Using Wrf-Em Output With Cmaq 09/27/2005
OTTE, T. L. AND J. E. PLEIM. Mcipv 3: Using Wrf-Em Output With Cmaq. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This paper reports on the techncal upgrades that were included in the MCIPv3 to add the WRF processing capability. In addition, a preliminary evaluation of the WRF output for CMAS will be presented.

PRESENTATION Investigation and Implications of Sub Grid Variability of Cmaq Modeled Concentrations 09/27/2005
CHING, J. K. AND M. A. MAJEED. Investigation and Implications of Sub Grid Variability of Cmaq Modeled Concentrations. Presented at 4TH Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This poster introduces a method called SGV adjusted concentrations (SAC) for introducing sub-grid variability (inherent in air quality grid models) into CMAQ for various applications C MAQ was run at 36-, 12-, 4-, and 1 km-grid sizes for July 2001 for the Delaware domain. The SGV descriptors such as the coefficient of variability (COV); were computed for benzene formaldehyde and ozone for 12 km cells based on their km simulations. Potential utility of this method include, (a) exposure assessments, (b) model evaluation studies and (c) weight-of-evidence applications in air quality attainment demonstrations.

PRESENTATION Layer Dependent Advection in Cmaq 09/27/2005
YOUNG, J. O. AND J. PLEIM. Layer Dependent Advection in Cmaq. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: The advection methods used in CMAQ require that the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition be satisfied for numerical stability and accuracy. In CMAQ prior to version 4.3, the ADVSTEP algorithm established CFL-safe synchronization and advection timesteps that were uniform throughout all the vertical layers. The resulting small synchronization timesteps, required to satisfy the CFL condition for applications with high winds aloft, pose an undue computational restriction since we are modeling the PBL and not the regions aloft. A layer dependent horizontal advection scheme has been developed that allows for multiple advection steps per synchronization step in layers dominated by high winds. This presentation describes the method and shows results comparing the old scheme. Results from the new, explicit mass-conserving advection scheme are demonstrated.

PRESENTATION Wildland Fire Emission Modeling for Cmaq: An Update 09/27/2005
POULIOT, G., T. E. PIERCE, AND J. VUKOVICH. Wildland Fire Emission Modeling for Cmaq: An Update. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This paper summarizes recent efforts to improve the methods used for modeling wild land fire emissions both for retrospective modeling and real-time forecasting. These improvements focus on the temporal and spatial resolution of the activity data as well as the methods to estimate the emissions from wild land fires.

PRESENTATION (Presented at Cmas) the Nonlinear Response of Nitrate Replacement That Mitigates Sulfate Reduction: the Gas Ration as An Indictor and Sensitivity to Errors in Total Ammonia and Total Nitrate 09/26/2005
DENNIS, R. L. AND P. BHAVE. (Presented at Cmas) the Nonlinear Response of Nitrate Replacement That Mitigates Sulfate Reduction: the Gas Ration as An Indictor and Sensitivity to Errors in Total Ammonia and Total Nitrate. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 Users Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: The poster presents an assessment, using the CMAQ air quality model, showing the inorganic gas ratio (the ratio of free ammonia to total nitrate) can function as a screening indicator of the winter replacement of sulfate by nitrate when sulfate is reduced. It also presents an assessment of the influence of ammonia and total nitrate input uncertainties on the CMAQ predictions of nitrate replacement concluding that ammonia emissions uncertainty matters most.

PRESENTATION The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (Amet); Air Quality Module 09/26/2005
APPEL, W., S. HOWARD, R. GILLIAM, AND S. PHILLIPS. The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (Amet); Air Quality Module. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 User's Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: This presentation reviews the development of the Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET) air quality module. The AMET tool is being developed to aid in the model evaluation. This presentation focuses on the air quality evaluation portion of AMET. Presented are examples of the various statistics and plots available though the AMET air quality module. Future direction of AMET is also provided.

PRESENTATION The Atmospheric Model Evaluation (Amet): Meteorology Module 09/26/2005
GILLIAM, R. C., W. APPEL, AND S. PHILLIPS. The Atmospheric Model Evaluation (Amet): Meteorology Module. Presented at 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 Users Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, September 26 - 28, 2005.
Abstract: An Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool (AMET), composed of meteorological and air quality components, is being developed to examine the error and uncertainty in the model simulations. AMET matches observations with the corresponding model-estimated values in space and time, and then stores the paired observation and model values in a relational database. Subsequent analysis programs extract user specified data from the database to generate statistical plots and tables.

PRESENTATION Comments Contributed By Alan Huber to Awma Ab-3 Committee for Possible Inclusion in the Committee's Presentation at EPA's 8th Conference on Air Quality Modeling A&wma Ab-3 Comments on Nonstandard Modeling Approaches 09/23/2005
HUBER, A. H. Comments Contributed By Alan Huber to Awma Ab-3 Committee for Possible Inclusion in the Committee's Presentation at EPA's 8th Conference on Air Quality Modeling A&wma Ab-3 Comments on Nonstandard Modeling Approaches. Presented at 8th Conference on Air Quality Modeling, Research Triangle Park, NC, September 23, 2005.
Abstract: Technical comments are provided to the Air and waste Management Associations AB-3 committee for potential inclusion into the committee's comments to be made at EPA's 8th Conference on Air Quality Modeling. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations can model specific cases where flow around buildings affect pollution transport and dispersion. Current routinely applied air quality models do not include models of specific buildings. Today, industrial complexes can be practically modeled by most workstations, while complex urban areas can only be modeled by the largest systems. It is recommended that there be a determination when and how CFD models may be used to complement existing approved models for regulatory application.

PRESENTATION Resolving Fine Scale in Air Toxics Modeling and the Importance of Its Sub-Grid Variability for Exposure Estimates 09/21/2005
ISAKOV, V., J. K. CHING, J. IRWIN, T. PALMA, AND J. THURMAN. Resolving Fine Scale in Air Toxics Modeling and the Importance of Its Sub-Grid Variability for Exposure Estimates. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: This presentation explains the importance of the fine-scale features for air toxics exposure modeling. The paper presents a new approach to combine local-scale and regional model results for the National Air Toxic Assessment. The technique has been evaluated with a chemical transport model CMAQ and dispersion models ASPEN and ISCST in Philadelphia, and combined results were used as an input to HAPEM exposure model.

PRESENTATION Linking Changes in Utility No x Emissions to Change in Ozone Air Quality 09/21/2005
PORTER, S., E. GEGO, E. ZALEWSKY, A. GILLILAND, J. IRWIN, AND S.T. RAO. Linking Changes in Utility No x Emissions to Change in Ozone Air Quality. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: The NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call was designed to reduce Northeastern U.S. NOx emissions from utilities. With these reductions, it was anticipated that the amount of ozone attributed to transport from other states would in turn be reduced. In this study, ozone time series data are analyzed at several Northeastern U.S. sites from 1995 through 2004 to consider whether a ozone reduction can be seen. Results show observed ozone reductions at the sites, especially when only considering time periods when the site is downwind of the Ohio River Valley, which had substantial NOx reductions as part of the NOx SIP call.

PRESENTATION An Annual Evaluation of the 2005 Release of Models-3 Cmaq 09/21/2005
APPEL, W., A. GILLILAND, AND B. K. EDER. An Annual Evaluation of the 2005 Release of Models-3 Cmaq. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: An annual operation performance evaluation of the 2005 release of Models-3 CMAQ v4.5 has been performed. The poster presented results from the winter and summer season for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, organic carbon, PM2.5 mass and AQS 8-hr maximum ozone. Statistics, box plots, scatter plots and spatial plots are provided for the winter and summer seasons.

PRESENTATION Earth, Wind and Fire: Building Meteorologically-Sensitive Biogenic and Wildland Fire Emission Estimates for Air Quality Models 09/21/2005
PIERCE, T. E., G. POULIOT, D. B. SCHWEDE, AND W. G. BENJEY. Earth, Wind and Fire: Building Meteorologically-Sensitive Biogenic and Wildland Fire Emission Estimates for Air Quality Models. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubliee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorological processor in a chemical modeling system. This presentation for the NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium on Air Quality Modeling and Its Applications reports on emission modeling estimates of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and wildland fires.

PRESENTATION The Nonlinear Response of Nitrate Replacement That Mitigates Sulfate Reductions: the Gas Ratio as An Indicator and Sensitivity to Errors in Total Ammonia and Total Nitrate 09/20/2005
DENNIS, R. L. AND P. BHAVE. The Nonlinear Response of Nitrate Replacement That Mitigates Sulfate Reductions: the Gas Ratio as An Indicator and Sensitivity to Errors in Total Ammonia and Total Nitrate. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: The poster presents an assessment, using the CMAQ air quality model, showing the inorganic gas ratio (the ratio of free ammonia to total nitrate) can function as a screening indicator of the winter replacement of sulfate by nitrate when sulfate is reduced. It also presents an assessment of the influence of ammonia and total nitrate input uncertainties on the CMAQ predictions of nitrate replacement concluding that ammonia emissions uncertainty matters most.

PRESENTATION Wind Velocities and Sand Fluxes in Mesquite Dune-Lands in the Northern Chihuahuan Desert: A Comparison Between Field Measurements and the Quic (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex) Model 09/20/2005
BOWKER, G. E. AND D. GILLETTE. Wind Velocities and Sand Fluxes in Mesquite Dune-Lands in the Northern Chihuahuan Desert: A Comparison Between Field Measurements and the Quic (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex) Model. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: The poster shows comparisons of wind velocities and sand fluxes between field measurements and a computer model, called QUIC (Quick Urban & Industrial Complex). The comparisons were made for a small desert region in New Mexico.

PRESENTATION Modeling the Effect of Chlorine Emissions on Atmospheric Ozone and Secondary Organic Aerosol Concentrations Across the United States 09/20/2005
SARWAR, G. AND P. BHAVE. Modeling the Effect of Chlorine Emissions on Atmospheric Ozone and Secondary Organic Aerosol Concentrations Across the United States. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium , Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: This paper presents the modeled effects of natural and anthropogenic chlorine emissions on the atmospheric concentrations of ozone and secondary organic aerosol across the United States. The model calculations include anthropogenic molecular chlorine emissions, anthropogenic hypochlorous acid emissions from cooling towers and swimming pools, and natural molecular chlorine released from sea-salt aerosol. Air quality model simulations are performed for a selected summer period in 2001 and the results obtained with and without chlorine emissions are analyzed. The net effect of chlorine emissions on atmospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol concentrations is presented in the accompanying article.

PRESENTATION Past and Present: 50 Years of Air Quality Research and Application By the Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division in Partnership With the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 09/20/2005
POOLE-KOBER, E. Past and Present: 50 Years of Air Quality Research and Application By the Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division in Partnership With the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: The poster describes the 50 year history of the Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division and the contributions it has made in Air Quality Research and its applications.

PRESENTATION Probabilistic Characterization of Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion 09/20/2005
IRWIN, J., W. B. PETERSEN, AND S. HOWARD. Probabilistic Characterization of Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: Dispersion models are used to assess the possible extent and severity of accidental or terrorist releases of toxic materials. Most operational models only provide a characterization of average concentrations and conditions following a release. Knowledge of the variability about the average is vital to the correct interpretation of model results. The variability can be characterized as coming from two primary sources, 1) wind field (trajectory) variability, and 2) unresolved (diffusion) variability not currently characterized by the model parameterizations. This study provides a quantification of these two sources of variability.

PRESENTATION A Performance Evaluation of the Eta-Cmaq Air Quality Forecast System for the Summer of 2005 09/20/2005
EDER, B. K., D. KANG, R. MATHUR, S. YU, AND K. L. SCHERE. A Performance Evaluation of the Eta-Cmaq Air Quality Forecast System for the Summer of 2005. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: This poster presents an evaluation of the Eta-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast System's experimental domain using O3 observations obtained from EPA's AIRNOW program and a suite of statistical metrics examining both discrete and categorical forecasts.

PRESENTATION Advanced Urbanized Meteorological Modeling and Air Quality Simulations With Cmaq at Neighborhood Scales 09/20/2005
CHING, J. K., R. GILLIAM, S. DUPONT, AND S. BURIAN. Advanced Urbanized Meteorological Modeling and Air Quality Simulations With Cmaq at Neighborhood Scales. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: We present results from a study testing the new boundary layer parameterization method, the canopy drag approach (DA) which is designed to explicitly simulate the effects of buildings, street and tree canopies on the dynamic, thermodynamic structure and dispersion fields in urban areas. The objective is to provide realistic meteorological and air quality modeling of urban areas. This requires replacing the homogeneity in roughness and dominant land use requirements in current models with parameterizations that are based on actual surface distributions of urban morphological features. For this study, we additionally incorporate actual, within-grid land use variation with an advanced urbanized surface layer (soil atmosphere) model (SM2-U). The implementation into the NCAR-Penn State Mesoscale Meteorological Model, Version 5 (MM5) is called DA-SM-2U/MM5. Requirements for this system include gridded urban canopy parameterizations (UCP) and a canopy layer structure into the model. For this study, a set of UCPs (combination of vertical profiles and surface values), gridded at 1 km was derived from a set of 3-D high resolution (order 1m) buildings and vegetation data. For our study, the data came from airborne lidar measurements, ancillary data from satellites, high altitude photography, as well as detailed residential, commercial and industrial maps.
Standard, coarse scale MM5 runs were performed at 36, 12, and 4 km grid sizes, the latter used to perform the simulations at 1 km grid size using both the drag approach (DA-SM2U) and for comparative purposes, the standard, roughness based approach (RA). These multi-scale meteorology fields were then used to simulate air quality using the USEPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Considerable differences in the transport, in the characterization of the urban heat island and ultimately in the air quality simulations are apparent. The observations support the use of the advanced approach.

PRESENTATION The Noaa/EPA Fluid Modeling Facility's Contributions to the Understanding of the Atmospheric Dispersion 09/20/2005
PERRY, S. G., W. H. SNYDER, D. HEIST, R. S. THOMPSON, R. E. LAWSON, G. E. BOWKER, AND L. BRIXEY. The Noaa/EPA Fluid Modeling Facility's Contributions to the Understanding of the Atmospheric Dispersion. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: Over the past thirty years, scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Fluid Modeling Facility (FMF) have conducted laboratory studies of fluid flow and pollutant dispersion within three distinct experimental chambers: a meteorological wind tunnel, a water-channel towing tank, and a convection tank. The laboratory is staffed by both National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and EPA scientists and technicians with the collaborative mission of advancing our understanding of atmospheric dispersion. Experimental studies have contributed directly to the development and improvement of many of EPA's and NOAA's numerical models of pollutant transport and diffusion. This paper includes a discussion of the FMF mission, a description of the facility and its capabilities, and a brief overview of the FMF history and the variety of flow and dispersion studies that have been undertaken. Some of the more significant scientific findings and how they have influenced applied dispersion models are described.

PRESENTATION Air Quality Modeling for the Twenty-First Century 09/20/2005
SCHERE, K. L. Air Quality Modeling for the Twenty-First Century. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: This presentation describes recent and evolving advances in the science of numerical air quality simulation modeling. Emphasis is placed on new developments in particulate matter modeling and atmospheric chemistry, diagnostic modeling tools, and integrated modeling systems. New applications areas are illustrated, including air quality model forecast systems, global/regional climate interactions, and intercontinental transport.

PRESENTATION Daily Simulations of Ozone and Fine Particulates Over the Northeastern United States: Model Performance, Seasonal Differences, and the Effect of Model Updates 09/20/2005
HOGREFE, C., W. HAO, K. CIVEROLO, J. KU, G. SISTLA, L. SEDEFIAN, R. GAZA, K. L. SCHERE, A. GILLILAND, AND R. MATHUR. Daily Simulations of Ozone and Fine Particulates Over the Northeastern United States: Model Performance, Seasonal Differences, and the Effect of Model Updates. Presented at NOAA/EPA Golden Jubilee Symposium on Air Quality Modeling and Its Applications, Durham, NC, September 20 - 21, 2005.
Abstract: This poster presents analysis of near-realtime air quality simulations over New York State for two summer and one winter season. Simulations were performed as a pilot study between the NOAA, EPA, and NYSDEC, utilizing resources from the national operational NOAA/EPA air quality forecasts. Model simulations were compared against measurements of O3 and total and speciated PM2.5 as well as against routine air quality forecasts issued by NYSDEC.

PRESENTATION Residence Time Measurements in An Array of Buildings 08/25/2005
HEIST, D., L. BRIXEY, S. G. PERRY, AND G. E. BOWKER. Residence Time Measurements in An Array of Buildings. Presented at PHYSMOD 2005 International Workshop, London, ON, CANADA, August 24, 2004 - August 26, 2005.
Abstract: Transient concentration measurements were made to characterize residence times of pollutants in a street canyon within an array of buildings. The decay in pollutant concentration with time can be characterized by two time scales, the delay time and the decay time constant. The delay time represents the time required after a source is turned off for a decrease in concentration to be observed at the sampler. The decay time scale is a measure of how quickly a street canyon ventilates after the delay time has passed. Both of these times scales were found to decrease by 18-20% when the building height (H) directly upwind of the measurement point was increased from 1H to 3H, where H is the height of the other buildings in the array.

PRESENTATION Integrating Air Quality Data to Inform Human Health Decisions 08/01/2005
RAO, S.T. Integrating Air Quality Data to Inform Human Health Decisions. Presented at Integrated Earth Observations: Application to Air Quality and Human Health, Research Triangle Park, NC, August 01 - 02, 2005.
Abstract: The August 1-2, 2005 EPA-NIEHS workshop is addressing the linkages between air quality and human health. My presentation will discuss the strengths and limitations of various databases for relating air quality to health impacts. Specifically, the need for fusing ground-based, satellite-based, and model-based data to generate high-resolution maps of air pollutant concentrations will be discussed to build confidence in examining the relationships between air quality and human health.

PRESENTATION Developing Mcip to Process Wrf-Em Output 06/30/2005
OTTE, T. L. AND J. PLEIM. Developing Mcip to Process Wrf-Em Output. Presented at AD-HOC Meteorological Modeling Meeting 2005, Denver, CO, June 30 - July 01, 2005.
Abstract: This presentation describes modifications that were made to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System's Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) to ingest a new meteorological model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This presentation also shows some examples of output from the current release of the WRF Model and compares those fields with data from the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), which is currently the primary meteorological model used to provide data for CMAQ via MCIP.

PRESENTATION Update on Development of Nudging Fdda for Advanced Research Wrf 06/28/2005
STAUFFER, D., A. DENG, J. DUDHIA, AND T. L. OTTE. Update on Development of Nudging Fdda for Advanced Research Wrf. Presented at 2005 Joint WRF/MM5 Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 27 - 30, 2005.
Abstract: A nudging-based four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) system is being developed for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This effort represents a collaboration between The Pennsylvania State University (i.e., Penn State), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the U.S. EPA, and NOAA. The WRF nudging is based, in part, on the system that was developed for the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), but it has been modified to use the WRF state equations, variables, and horizontal grid system. Progress on the development was discussed in the presentation.

PRESENTATION The Effect of Chlorine Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone in the United States 06/23/2005
SARWAR, G. AND G. L. GIPSON. The Effect of Chlorine Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone in the United States. Presented at Air and Waste Management Association 2005 Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June 21 - 25, 2005.
Abstract: The effect of chlorine emissions on atmospheric ozone in the continental United States was evaluated. Atmospheric chlorine chemistry was combined with the carbon bond mechanism and incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. Sources of chlorine included anthropogenic emissions obtained from the 1999 National Emissions Inventory for Hazardous Air Pollutants, and chlorine released from the reactions of chlorides in sea-salt aerosols. Results from the photochemical model were evaluated for five days during the summer of 2001. Model results show that chlorine chemistry increased morning ozone mixing ratio by as much as 19 parts per billion by volume near the Great Salt Lake. However, the chlorine chemistry did not affect ozone mixing ratio in other areas of the continental United States. The enhancement of morning ozone mixing ratio was accompanied by a decrease in volatile organic compound mixing ratio. Chlorine radical levels peaked in the morning hours whereas maximum hydroxyl radical levels occurred in the afternoon hours. During morning hours, peak chlorine radical levels were approximately 5-10% of hydroxyl radical levels, and the volatile organic compound oxidation rate via chlorine radical pathway was comparable to the VOC oxidation rate via hydroxyl radical pathway. During afternoon hours, chlorine radical levels were typically less than 0.5% of the hydroxyl radical levels, and the VOC oxidation rate via chlorine radical pathway was lower than the VOC oxidation rate via hydroxyl radical pathway.
The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.


PRESENTATION Example Application of Cfd Simulations for Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Over the Open Fields of Project Prairie Grass 06/22/2005
TANG, W., A. H. HUBER, B. BELL, K. KUEHLERT, AND W. SCHWARZ. Example Application of Cfd Simulations for Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Over the Open Fields of Project Prairie Grass. Presented at Air and Waste Management Association 98th Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June 21 - 25, 2005.
Abstract: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques are increasingly being applied to air quality modeling of short-range dispersion, especially the flow and dispersion around buildings and other geometrically complex structures. The proper application and accuracy of such CFD techniques needs to be assessed. The first step in such an assessment is to examine the ability to simulate atmospheric-like boundary layer flow in absence of buildings and plume dispersion over open fields.
Case studies based on the Project Prairie Grass field program were used to develop and evaluate CFD simulation of plume dispersion over an open field. A commercial CFD code, FLUENT has been used in this study. For a given ground roughness height and friction velocity, a 2D CFD simulation was first developed to generate an atmosphere-like boundary layer. The simulated mean velocity profile matched field measurements. This atmosphere-like boundary layer was then applied as a boundary condition in the 3D CFD simulation of each dispersion case study. The simulated profiles of mean velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent dissipation rate were maintained within the downwind domain for the CFD simulation.

The steady-state CFD simulation was used to model the time-averaged plume by applying wind direction temporal data to account for variations in wind direction. Results for field runs characterized by near thermally neutral stability conditions were evaluated thoroughly in comparison with the field-measured plume from point source release of a tracer gas. The CFD model performed well as demonstrated by the reported performance metrics, based on comparisons with not only the measured centerline concentrations but also the full lateral and vertical profiles.

This paper demonstrates that CFD methods can well simulate the atmosphere-like boundary layer and plume dispersion over an open plain. The authors believe this is a critical first step before application to more complex situations with flow and dispersion around buildings and other geometrically complex structures. The goal of our ongoing research is to demonstrate application to these complex situations where the Gaussian plume models definitely fail. Work is ongoing to extend application of the methods presented in this paper to all stability categories and to flow involving building influences.

PRESENTATION Applications of Cfd Simulations of Pollutant Transport and Dispersion Within Ambient Urban Building Environments: Including Homeland Security 06/22/2005
HUBER, A. H., M. FREEMAN, R. SPENCER, B. BELL, K. KUEHLERT, AND W. SCHWARZ. Applications of Cfd Simulations of Pollutant Transport and Dispersion Within Ambient Urban Building Environments: Including Homeland Security. Presented at Air and Waste Management Assocaition 98th Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June 21 - 25, 2005.
Abstract: There is presently much focus on Homeland Security and the need to understand how potential sources of toxic material are transported and dispersed in the urban environment. Material transport and dispersion within these urban centers is highly influenced by the buildings. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations have emerged as a promising technology for supporting such assessments, in part due to the advancing power of computational hardware and software. CFD simulations have the potential to yield more detailed simulations than other modeling methodologies because they are a solution of the fundamental physics equations and include the effects of detailed three-dimensional geometry and local environmental conditions. However, the tools are not well evaluated for environmental modeling and best-practice methodologies have not been established. The US Environmental Protection Agency has been developing and evaluating CFD applications for routine air quality studies. Following the events on September 11, 2001, this work has focused on understanding the potential pollution transport and dispersion from the collapse of the World Trade Center towers and the subsequent weeks while fires continued to burn at "ground zero". This work is ongoing and is being extended to support homeland security related studies in other parts of Manhattan.
The results of CFD simulations can both be directly used to better understand specific case studies as well as be used to support the development of more simplified algorithms that may be generally applied. Detailed CFD simulations make it possible to safely explore potential scenarios in support of preparedness, location of monitoring instrumentation and better understanding air measurements. This presentation summarizes ongoing developments and applications of CFD simulations through case studies using the commercial FLUENT CFD software code. Pollutant transport and dispersion in the ambient environment is being simulated. Plans have been initiated to develop methods to interface with indoor air quality.

Future wind tunnel and field studies should play a critical role in supporting CFD developments by providing opportunities for CFD simulation evaluation and demonstration of reliability. The process should be iterative in that a better CFD model provides better guidance for collecting better measurements. Even the best conceivable field measurement study will have very few data relative to the detailed structure of air flow and pollutant dispersion within the complex built urban environments. Therefore application of CFD simulations is critical to being able to understand pollutant transport and dispersion within urban building environments, and consequently critical in support of homeland security.

PRESENTATION (Awma) Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Management Across North America a Narsto Assessment 06/22/2005
MOBLEY, J. DAVID. (Awma) Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Management Across North America a Narsto Assessment. Presented at 2005 AWMA Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June 21 - 24, 2005.
Abstract: The NARSTO Ozone and Particulate Matter Assessments emphasized that emission inventories are critical to the success of air quality management programs and that emissions inventories in Canada, Mexico, and the United States need improvement to meet expectations for quality, timeliness, and cost effectiveness. Accordingly, NARSTO sponsored a workshop to address new and innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation. Findings and recommendations from the workshop led NARSTO to undertake an assessment of the emission inventory programs across North America. The assessment, slated for completion in Spring 2005, identifies emission inventory programs needed for the 21st century, recognizes the capabilities and limitations of current programs, and recommends enhancements needed to move the programs forward. Preliminary findings and recommendations will be presented.

PRESENTATION A Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth Simulated Using Cmaq With Satellite Estimates 06/22/2005
ROY, B., R. MATHUR, JIM SZYKMAN, A. GILLILAND, AND C. KITTAKA. A Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth Simulated Using Cmaq With Satellite Estimates. Presented at 2005 A&WMA Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June 21 - 25, 2005.
Abstract: Satellite data provide new opportunities to study the regional distribution of particulate matter.
The aerosol optical depth (AOD) - a derived estimate from the satellite-measured radiance, can be compared against model estimates to provide an evaluation of the columnar aerosol distributions simulated by the air quality models. In this study, we inter-compare the modeled AOD data computed using three different methods. The first two are empirical approaches whereas the third method uses a parametric approximation to Mie extinction.

PRESENTATION A Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth Simulated Using Cmaq With Satellite Estimates 06/22/2005
ROY, B., R. MATHUR, J. SZYKMAN, A. GILLILAND, AND C. KITTAKA. A Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth Simulated Using Cmaq With Satellite Estimates. Presented at Air and Waste Management Association 98th Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN, June 21 - 24, 2005.
Abstract: Satellite data provide new opportunities to study the regional distribution of particulate matter. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) - a derived estimate from the satellite measured irradiance, can be compared against model derived estimate to provide an evaluation of the columnar aerosol distributions simulated by the air quality forecast models. In this study, we inter-compare the modeled AOD data computed using three different methods. The first two are empirical approaches whereas the third method uses a parametric approximation to Mie extinction. The first method is based on using relative humidity bulk factor dependent scattering coefficients for the various anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The second method assumes that one-half of the organic mass is soluble and involves a reconstructed particle scattering and absorption scheme that utilize the modeled relative humidity to ascertain hygroscopic growth factor. The third method used a modified Mie scattering algorithm and the modeled number and size distributions for computing AOD's in the period July 14-August 17, 2004. Cloud-free National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-2 granular AOD swath product (with a 10 km resolution at nadir) is re-gridded to the CMAQ computational grid to aid in statistical comparison between the modeled and satellite data. Results for May and August, 2001 are obtained using MM5-CMAQ concentration data and using the first two methods. These AOD's are directly compared with the satellite estimates. Using Eta-CMAQ simulated concentration data for the period July-August 2004 and following the second and third methods AOD at 550 nm are inter-compared and also in context of two wildland fire events.

PRESENTATION (Edmunds, Wa) Wildland Fire Emissions Modeling: Integrating Bluesky and Smoke 06/16/2005
POULIOT, G., T. E. PIERCE, W. G. BENJEY, S. M. ONEILL, AND S. A. FERGUSON. (Edmunds, Wa) Wildland Fire Emissions Modeling: Integrating Bluesky and Smoke. Presented at BlueSky Annual Meeting, Edmunds, WA, June 15 - 16, 2005.
Abstract: This presentation is a status update of the BlueSky emissions modeling system. BlueSky-EM has been coupled with the Sparse Matrix Operational Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) system, and is now available as a tool for estimating emissions from wildland fires

PRESENTATION Atmospheric Deposition Modeling and Monitoring of Nutrients 06/02/2005
DENNIS, R. L. Atmospheric Deposition Modeling and Monitoring of Nutrients. Presented at 4th Scientist to Scientist Meeting - Patuxent Wildlife Center, Laurel, MD, June 01 - 03, 2005.
Abstract: This talk presents an overview of the capabilities and roles that regional atmospheric deposition models can play with respect to multi-media environmental problems. The focus is on nutrient deposition (nitrogen). Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen is an important contributor to coastal and marine environmental degradation. The roles for atmospheric models in the context of watershed studies are illustrated through examples from analyses with EPA regional air quality models. The new capabilities of EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model, CMAQ, regarding deposition to the coastal oceans and the forecasting of air pollution, together with the National Weather Service, are also presented.

PRESENTATION One Atmosphere Modeling for Air Quality: Building Partnerships That Transition Research Into Applications 05/17/2005
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION. One Atmosphere Modeling for Air Quality: Building Partnerships That Transition Research Into Applications. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: The Community Miultiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system is a "one atmosphere" chemical transport model that simulates the transport and fate of air pollutants from urban to continental scales and from daily to annual time intervals.

PRESENTATION Improve Emission Inventories Through Advances in Methods and Models 05/17/2005
MOBLEY, J. DAVID, SUE KIMBROUGH, AND W. B. KUYKENDAL. Improve Emission Inventories Through Advances in Methods and Models. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: Emission inventories are the foundation of cost-effective air quality management strategies. The emission inventory must be complete, accurate, timely, transparent, and affordable. The general approach is to identify the largest uncertainties that can impact model outputs and associated strategy development and then conduct focused research to improve the underlying tools and techniques for completing and processing emission inventories. The research and development activities conducted to enhance emissions data and estimation techniques have increased the quality of the emission inventories used to meet these goals. Over the last five years, the research conducted has advanced the Nation's capability to quantify biogenic emissions, characterize ammonia emissions and emission patterns, develop more refined estimates of mobile source emissions that consider the influence of operating mode, determine the specific species emitted from a variety of sources, characterize fire emissions, as well as measure and characterize hazardous air pollutants. The outputs from this research have significantly improved the inputs used for air quality models that project future concentration of ambient pollutants and helped identify the sources responsible for contributing to the elevated pollutant levels.

PRESENTATION A Pilot Study for Near Real-Time Aerosol Modeling and Air Quality Characterization 05/17/2005
HOGREFE, C., W. HAO, K. CIVEROLO, J. KU, G. SISTIA, J. O. YOUNG, G. L. WALTER, A. GILLILAND, AND K. L. SCHERE. A Pilot Study for Near Real-Time Aerosol Modeling and Air Quality Characterization. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: The poster will present the objectives and initial results of a pilot study conducted as a partnership between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC). The primary objectives of this study are to implement, operate, and evaluate an automated, numerical, model-based air quality forecast system to provide daily predictions of O3 and PM2.5 and to assess the integrated use of modeled and observed concentrations to better characterize the spatial and temporal variations of air quality over New York. Based on simulations for summer 2004 and winter 2005, we will present an overview on the operational aspects such as data transfers, computing power, data storage, and scientific questions, such as the merits and demerits of Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model-based forecasts in comparison to traditional approaches.

PRESENTATION A Pilot Environmental Data Grid Distribution System 05/17/2005
WALTER, G. L., A. GILLILAND, E. COOTER, R. C. GILLIAM, K. CAVANAUGH, AND L. M. PETTERSON. A Pilot Environmental Data Grid Distribution System. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: The primary objectives of this study are to implement, operate, and evaluate a workable, distributed data access, format neutral "data-on-demand" prototype, leveraging leading-edge technologies assembled in a unique operational prototype system and distributed over the U.S. EPA's Data Grid.

PRESENTATION Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Managment Across North America a Narsto Assessment 05/17/2005
MOBLEY, D., M. DESLAURIERS, AND L. ROJAS-BRACHOS. Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Managment Across North America a Narsto Assessment. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: The NARSTO Ozone and Particulate Matter Assessments emphasized that emission inventories are critical to the success of air quality management programs and that emissions inventories in Canada, Mexico, and the United States need improvement to meet expectations for quality, timeliness, and cost effectiveness. Accordingly, NARSTO sponsored a workshop to address new and innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation. Findings and recommendations from the workshop led NARSTO to undertake an assessment of the emission inventory programs across North America. The assessment, slated for completion in Spring 2005, identifies emission inventory programs needed for the 21st century, recognizes the capabilities and limitations of current programs, and recommends enhancements needed to move the programs forward.

PRESENTATION Forecasting Air Quality With U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (Cmaq) Model 05/17/2005
SCHERE, K. L., R. MATHUR, AND B. K. EDER. Forecasting Air Quality With U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (Cmaq) Model. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005, Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: This project encompasses a new major application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to real-time air quality forecasting of near-surface ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5).

PRESENTATION A Pilot Study for Near Real-Time Aerosol Modeling and Air Quality Characterization 05/17/2005
GILLILAND, A., C. HOGREFE, W. HAO, G. SISTIA, J. O. YOUNG, G. L. WALTER, AND K. L. SCHERE. A Pilot Study for Near Real-Time Aerosol Modeling and Air Quality Characterization. Presented at EPA Science Forum 2005 , Washington, DC, May 16 - 18, 2005.
Abstract: The primary objectives of this study are to implement, operate, and evaluate an automated, numerical, model-based air quality forecast system to provide daily predictions of O3 and PM2.5 and to assess the integrated use of modeled and observed concentrations to better characterize the spatial and temporal variations of air quality over New York. Based on simulations for summer 2004 and winter 2005, we will present an overview on the operational aspects such as data transfers, computing power, data storage, and scientific questions, such as the merits and demerits of Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model-based forecasts in comparison to traditional approaches.

PRESENTATION Inverse Model Estimation and Evaluation of Seasonal Nh 3 Emissions 04/18/2005
GILLILAND, A. Inverse Model Estimation and Evaluation of Seasonal Nh 3 Emissions. Presented at North Carolina State University's Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, Research Triangle Park, NC, April 18, 2005.
Abstract: The presentation topic is inverse modeling for estimate and evaluation of emissions. The case study presented is the need for seasonal estimates of NH3 emissions for air quality modeling. The inverse modeling application approach is first described, and then the NH3 case study is discussed.

PRESENTATION Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability of Meteorologically-Influenced Emissions 04/14/2005
BENJEY, W. G. AND E. COOTER. Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability of Meteorologically-Influenced Emissions. Presented at 14th Annual International Emission Inventory Conference, Las Vegas, NV, April 11 - 14, 2005.
Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is a participant in the U.S. Global Change Research Program (CGRP). The air quality portion of the GCRP addresses the effect on air quality attributable to climate change in the intermediate future (e.g., 2050). The first phase of the program examines the change in air quality with respect to climate change from 2000 to 2050, using a static emission inventory for 2001, except for biogenic and mobile source emissions which are modeled to vary with meteorology. Between five and ten years of modeled meteorology data will be used to define the climate of 2000 and 2050, respectively. This presentation is a preliminary examination of the inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability of meteorologically-influenced emissions over a five-year base study period centered on 2000.

PRESENTATION EPA's New Emissions Modeling Framework 04/13/2005
HOUYOUX, M. R., M. STRUM, R. MASON, N. POSSIEL, W. G. BENJEY, D. H. LOUGHLIN, G. POULIOT, A. EYTH, AND C. SEPPANEN. EPA's New Emissions Modeling Framework. Presented at 14th Annual Emission Inventory Conference, Las Vegas, NE, April 12 - 14, 2005.
Abstract: EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards is building a new Emissions Modeling Framework that will solve many of the long-standing difficulties of emissions modeling. The goals of the Framework are to (1) prevent bottlenecks and errors caused by emissions modeling activities, (2) develop software infrastructure for performing emissions modeling in a consistent way across multiple projects, sharing emissions data in a multi-user environment, and enhancing transparency of emissions modeling, and (3) document and implement best-practice approaches for emissions modeling in support of criteria, particulate, toxics, and one-atmosphere air quality modeling. This paper presents the full scope of the EMF and the plans and timetable for development and releases of the software.

PRESENTATION Wildland Fire Emission Modeling: Integrating Bluesky and Smoke 04/13/2005
POULIOT, G., T. E. PIERCE, W. G. BENJEY, S. M. ONEILL, AND S. A. FERGUSON. Wildland Fire Emission Modeling: Integrating Bluesky and Smoke. Presented at 14th Annual International Emission Inventory Conference, Las Vegas, NV, April 11 - 14, 2005.
Abstract: This presentation is a summary of an improved method to estimate emissions from wildland fires. An interagency agreement between the US Forest Service and the US EPA has made it possible for these two agencies to collaborate in the study of wildland fires.

PRESENTATION Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability of Meteorologically-Influenced Emissions 04/13/2005
BENJEY, W. G. AND E. COOTER. Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability of Meteorologically-Influenced Emissions. Presented at 14th Annual Emission Inventory Conference, Las Vegas, NV, April 12 - 14, 2005.
Abstract: The EPA is a participant in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The air quality portion of the GCRP addresses the effect on air quality attributable to climate change in the intermediate future (e.g., 2050). The first phase of the program examines the change in air quality with respect to climate change from 2000 to 2050, using a static emission inventory for 2001, except for biogenic and mobile source emissions which are modeled to vary with meteorology. Between five and ten years of modeled meteorology data will be used to define the climate of 2000 and 2050, respectively. This paper is a preliminary examination of the inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability of meteorologically-influenced emissions over a five-year base study period centered on 2000.

PRESENTATION The Reactivity Research Working Group Within Narsto History and Technical Findings 04/12/2005
LUECKEN, D. J. The Reactivity Research Working Group Within Narsto History and Technical Findings. Presented at NARSTO Executive Assembly, Las Vegas, NV, April 11 - 12, 2005.
Abstract: Present summary of Reactivity Research Working Group activities to the NARSTO Executive Assembly members and the scientific community.

PRESENTATION Generating Sophisticated Spatial Surrogates Using the Mims Spatial Allocator 04/12/2005
EYTH, A. M. AND W. G. BENJEY. Generating Sophisticated Spatial Surrogates Using the Mims Spatial Allocator. Presented at 14th Annual Emission Inventory Conference, Las Vegas, NV, April 11 - 14, 2005.
Abstract: The Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS) Spatial Allocator is open-source software for generating spatial surrogates for emissions modeling, changing the map projection of Shapefiles, and performing other types of spatial allocation that does not require the use of a commercial Geographic Information System (GIS). The December 2003 version of the Spatial Allocator was able to generate basic point-, line-, and polygon-based surrogates for modeling grids from data contained in Shapefiles. In January 2005, a new version of the Spatial Allocator became available with features that allow it to reproduce the surrogates that are currently being used by EPA. The new features included in this version are the following: subsets of Shapefiles can be defined and used to generate surrogates or create smaller Shapefiles, surrogates can be generated based on a function of multiple attributes in one or more Shapefiles, surrogates can be generated using weighted sums of other surrogates, and new surrogates can be made by filling in the gaps of less comprehensive surrogates. An additional release of the Spatial Allocator will be made in June 2005. This version will be able to create the inputs for biogenic emissions processing that are required by the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system; perform general spatial allocation functions, such as mapping gridded data to and from county-level data, mapping from grid to grid, and aggregating data from census tract to county levels; and print the attributes of shapes that are overlapped by a grid, bounding box, or set of polygons.

PRESENTATION Wildfire Emission Modeling: Integrating Bluesky and Smoke 04/12/2005
POULIOT, G., T. E. PIERCE, W. G. BENJEY, S. M. ONEILL, AND S. A. FERGUSON. Wildfire Emission Modeling: Integrating Bluesky and Smoke. Presented at 14th International Emission Inventory Conference, Las Vegas, NV, April 11 - 14, 2005.
Abstract: Atmospheric chemical transport models are used to simulate historic meteorological episodes for developing air quality management strategies. Wildland fire emissions need to be characterized accurately to achieve these air quality management goals. The temporal and spatial estimates of emissions from fires, both wild and prescribed, have been problematic primarily because of uncertainty in the size and location of sources, and their temporal and spatial variability. Therefore, methods to estimate wildfire emissions that characterize their temporal and spatial variability are needed. The US Forest Service (USFS) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have signed an interagency agreement to improve the episodic modeling of fires with improved fuel loading data, fire location information, and fire behavior modeling (including plume behavior), using meteorological inputs. The USFS has developed a tool known as BlueSky to predict cumulative impacts of smoke from forest, agricultural, and range fires. The BlueSky modeling framework combines state of the art emissions, meteorology, and dispersion models to generate predictions of smoke impacts across the landscape. The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emission (SMOKE) processing system is a tool that creates gridded, speciated, and temporally allocated emission estimates for use in atmospheric chemical models. Portions of these tools have been combined to allow for an accurate characterization of fuel loading, temporal and spatial distribution of fire emissions, and a more accurate representation of fire plumes. By combining these two tools, the ability to simulate the impact of wildfires on air quality and develop air quality management strategies will be enhanced. This paper shows results from combining these two tools and an example from an air quality modeling simulation.

PRESENTATION Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Management Across North America a Narsto Assessment 04/11/2005
MOBLEY, J. DAVID, M. DESLAURIERS, AND L. ROJAS-BRACHOS. Improving Emission Inventories for Effective Air-Quality Management Across North America a Narsto Assessment. Presented at NARSTO Executive Assembly Meeting, Las Vegas, NV, April 11 - 12, 2005.
Abstract: The NARSTO Ozone and Particulate Matter Assessments emphasized that emission inventories are critical to the success of air quality management programs and that emissions inventories in Canada, Mexico, and the United States need improvement to meet expectations for quality, timeliness, and cost effectiveness. Accordingly, NARSTO sponsored a workshop to address new and innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation. Findings and recommendations from the workshop led NARSTO to undertake an assessment of the emission inventory programs across North America. The assessment, slated for completion in Spring 2005, identifies emission inventory programs needed for the 21st century, recognizes the capabilities and limitations of current programs, and recommends enhancements needed to move the programs forward. Preliminary findings and recommendations will be presented.

PRESENTATION Atmospheric Mercury Transport and Deposition 03/31/2005
BULLOCK, R. Atmospheric Mercury Transport and Deposition. Presented at 2005 Air Toxics Workshop, RTP, NC, March 31, 2005.
Abstract: The current state of our scientific understanding the mercury cycle tells us that most of the mercury getting into fish comes from atmospheric deposition, but methylation of that mercury in aquatic systems is required for the concentrations in fish to reach harmful levels. We still do not have a full understanding of the behavior of mercury while it is in the atmosphere, partly due to the fact that we cannot yet resolve the individual chemical compounds of mercury in air and in atmospheric water. The US EPA has developed an advanced numerical simulation model for atmospheric mercury based on the same model it uses to describe photochemical oxidants, acid deposition, and particulate matter. This model, CMAQ, includes a number of chemical reactions of mercury, some of which remain somewhat controversial with respect to their true importance. Comparison of simulated wet deposition of mercury to observations of the same show that the model has considerable skill in that regard, but there are no such observations of dry deposition against which the model can be tested. Thus, the confidence with which we can apply traditional techniques for model evaluation is limited. In general, the science of atmospheric mercury is still evolving.

PRESENTATION Using the Quic Model (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex) to Study Air Flow and Dispersion Patterns in Deserts 03/23/2005
BOWKER, G. E., D. GILLETTE, D. HEIST, AND S. G. PERRY. Using the Quic Model (Quick Urban and Industrial Complex) to Study Air Flow and Dispersion Patterns in Deserts. Presented at Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP) , Cape Canaveral AFS, FL, March 22 - 24, 2005.
Abstract: As part of its continuing development and evaluation, the QUIC model (Quick Urban & Industrial Complex) was used to study flow and dispersion in complex terrain for two cases. First, for a small area of lower Manhattan near the World Trade Center site, comparisons were made between measurements taken around a model in a wind tunnel and a QUIC simulation. Second, for a small desert area in the Jornada Experimental Range in New Mexico, wind velocity comparisons were made between measurements taken in the field and QUIC simulations. For both cases, comparisons were favorable, with QUIC correctly identifying the overall flow patterns and often matching wind velocities.

PRESENTATION Role of Models in Air Quality Management Decisions 03/16/2005
RAO, S.T., A. CIMORELLI, J. MOONEY, T. MACDONALD, AND A. VENKATRAM. Role of Models in Air Quality Management Decisions. Presented at US India Workshop on Air Quality Management Decisions, Pune, INDIA, March 14 - 17, 2005.
Abstract: Within the frame of the US-India bilateral agreement on environmental cooperation, a team of US scientists have been helping India in designing emission control policies to address urban air quality problems. This presentation discusses how air quality models need to be used for making emission management decisions.

PRESENTATION Evaluation of the Cmaq Aim Model Against Size and Chemically-Resolved Impactor Data at a Coastal Urban Site 02/09/2005
NOLTE, C. G., P. BHAVE, R. L. DENNIS, K. M. ZHANG, A. S. WEXLER, M. EVANS, AND N. POOR. Evaluation of the Cmaq Aim Model Against Size and Chemically-Resolved Impactor Data at a Coastal Urban Site. Presented at AAAR Supersites Conference, Atlanta, GA, February 07 - 11, 2005.
Abstract: CMAQ-UCD (formerly known as CMAQ-AIM), is a fully dynamic, sectional aerosol model which has been coupled to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) host air quality model. Aerosol sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sodium, and chloride model outputs are compared against MOUDI data collected near Tampa, Florida, during May 2002. Predicted sodium and chloride concentrations agreed with measurements within a factor of two, supporting the model's mechanistic method for predicting surf zone and open ocean sea salt fluxes.

PRESENTATION Emissions Processing for the Eta/Cmaq Air Quality Forecast System 02/09/2005
POULIOT, G. Emissions Processing for the Eta/Cmaq Air Quality Forecast System. Presented at 7th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Abstract: NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of the major components of the linkage between these two models is the new pre-processor to CMAQ (PREMAQ). PREMAQ combines the functionality of the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) and portions of the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processing system. This paper explains the emissions processing required for the AQF system which is a major component of PREMAQ. Ideally, real-time emissions data would be used in the real-time AQF system. However, the collection and transmission of such data in real-time is not yet feasible. The EPA creates a national emissions inventory (NEI) on a 3-year basis that is not available until several years after the year of interest. For the 2004 ozone season, the most recently available NEI is for 2001, based largely on the 1999 with some growth and year specific 2001 information included. The 2001 NEI was used as the basis for developing the inventory used in the AQF system. We will discuss modifications and updates made to the 2001 NEI for the 2004 AQF system.
For the 2004 AQF system, we divided the emissions processing into two components: calculations that can be done a priori (independent of meteorological fields) and calculations that are done in real-time (dependent on meteorological fields). Of the four emission inventory components, area sources, point sources, mobile sources and biogenic sources, only area source calculations are made completely a priori and therefore these were done outside of the AQF system and simply "merged" in real-time. Point Source and Mobile source emission processing are partially dependent on meteorological fields but also have components that are independent of meteorological fields. Emissions from point source were assumed to have a pre-determined temporal variability (similar to area sources) but a plume rise algorithm (dependent on such fields as wind components and temperature) requires real-time meteorological fields. Therefore for point sources only the plume rise component together with the "merging" of other information needed for point sources was included in PREMAQ. For Mobile source emissions which are a function of temperature, vehicle activity, and vehicle fleet information, there is a highly detailed emissions model for on-road sources (MOBILE6). However, it is too expensive and inefficient to use in the AQF system in real time. An efficient method for estimating mobile source emissions using the SMOKE/MOBILE 6 implementation was devised for the AQF system. For Biogenic emissions, the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) was directly integrated into PREMAQ because it is very fast and is highly dependent on meteorological conditions.

The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.


PRESENTATION Narsto Emission Inventory Assessment 02/09/2005
WEST, J. L., J. DAVID MOBLEY, M. DESLAURIERS, H. FELDMAN, C. FREY, L. ROJAS-BRACHO, S. S. WIERMAN, AND A. S. WERNER. Narsto Emission Inventory Assessment. Presented at American Association of Aerosol Research 2005, Atlanta, GA, February 07 - 11, 2005.
Abstract: The NARSTO Ozone and Particulate Matter Assessments emphasized that emission inventories are critical to the success of air quality management programs and that emissions inventories in Canada, Mexico, and the United States need improvement to meet expectations for quality, timeliness, and cost effectiveness. Accordingly, NARSTO sponsored a workshop to address new and innovative methods for emission inventory development and evaluation. Findings and recommendations from the workshop led NARSTO to undertake an assessment of the emission inventory programs across North America. The assessment, slated for completion in Spring 2005, identifies emission inventory programs needed for the 21st century, recognizes the capabilities and limitations of current programs, and recommends enhancements needed to move the programs forward. Preliminary findings and recommendations will be presented. The authors of this poster are CoChairs of the NARSTO committee that oversaw preparation of the Emissions Inventory Assessment report.
The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.


PRESENTATION Eta-Cmaq Modeling System's Capability to Provide PM 2.5 and Aerosol Optical Thickness Forecast 01/11/2005
LEE, P., R. MATHUR, J. MCQUEEN, S. KONDRAGUNTA, J. PLEIM, J. O. YOUNG, M. TSIDULKO, M. SCHENK, G. DIMEGO, T. L. OTTE, G. POULIOT, K. L. SCHERE, AND P. DAVIDSON. Eta-Cmaq Modeling System's Capability to Provide PM 2.5 and Aerosol Optical Thickness Forecast. Presented at 7th Conference for Atmospheric Chemistry 2005 American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Abstract: In 2003, NOAA and the U.S. EPA signed a Memorandum of Agreement to work together to develop a National Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) capability. To meet this goal, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS), the Office of Atmospheric Research (OAR) and the U.S. EPA developed and evaluated a prototype ozone forecast capability for Northeastern U.S. (Davidson et al, 2004). The NWS/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta model at 12 km was used (Rogers et al, 1996), to drive the EPA Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model (Byun et al, 1999) to produce up to 48 hour ozone predictions. From the outset of the AQF System (AQFS) design, there has been considerable commitment to include predictions of fine particles with diameter less than 2.5 m (PM2.5). High volume of particle- matter suspended in the atmosphere is hazardous to human health and impairs visibility. The scientific challenges accompanied with PM2.5 modeling and verification are manifold. It involves better understanding of complex aerosol microphysics and chemistry (e.g., particle size distributions), multi-phase constituent dynamics, and heterogeneous chemical reactions. Preliminary works on PM2.5 modeling demonstrated the difficulty of getting the correct speciation and their partitioning (Morris et al, 2004). In general uncertainties in PM2.5 modeling arise from uncertainties in emissions from wild fires, sea salt and crust soil sources of particles. In lieu of all these necessary pieces of revamping on PM2.5 modeling, the current work is a simple illustration of one of the potential methodologies NOAA/EPA is pursuing to provide numerical forecast guidance for two additional 2-D surface fields: PM2.5 concentration, and Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT).
The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.

PRESENTATION Verification of Surface Layer Ozone Forecasts in the Noaa/EPA Air Quality Forecast System in Different Regions Under Different Synoptic Scenarios 01/11/2005
TSIDULKO, M., J. T. MCQUEEN, G. DIMEGO, P. C. LEE, R. MATHUR, K. L. SCHERE, J. PLEIM, T. L. OTTE, D. KANG, M. SCHENK, J. GORLINE, AND P. M. DAVIDSON. Verification of Surface Layer Ozone Forecasts in the Noaa/EPA Air Quality Forecast System in Different Regions Under Different Synoptic Scenarios. Presented at 7th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Abstract: An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is to provide national guidance for ozone, particulate matter and other pollutants with acceptable accuracy. As a first stage of the project, ozone concentrations have been predicted on a real-time basis since summer 2003 for the Northeast US. Based on the initial series of experiments, an updated version of the AQF system is set to operational status by the autumn of 2004. This paper discusses a detailed verification of the ozone forecasts for selected periods during summer 2004.
Verification presented in this paper is done for the Northeast operational domain (Fig. 3). To create a capability for evaluating ozone, surface layer ozone concentrations from EPA AIRNOW measurements and CMAQ forecasts were incorporated into NCEP's Forecast Verification System (FVS) (Brill, 2004, DiMego et al, 2004). The AIRNOW network reports 1hr average and 8hr average surface ozone concentrations. Also, maximum values of these concentrations during the day can be derived. All these parameters are a subject for statistical evaluation. In this paper, however, only 1 hr average concentrations are verified. In FVS, the CMAQ predicted concentrations are interpolated to the observation points. Average statistics (e.g. bias, root mean square error, correlation, etc) are computed for the North East Coast, South East Coast, Mid-West, Gulf of Mexico and several other areas. Statistics for critical thresholds of ozone concentration are also computed.

The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW 13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies of views.

PRESENTATION Assessment of Eta-Cmaq Forecasts of Particulate Matter Distributions Through Comparisons With Surface Network and Specialized Measurements 01/10/2005
MATHUR, R., K. L. SCHERE, J. PLEIM, D. KANG, S. YU, P. LEE, AND B. ROY. Assessment of Eta-Cmaq Forecasts of Particulate Matter Distributions Through Comparisons With Surface Network and Specialized Measurements. Presented at 7th Conference for Atmospheric Chemistry 2005 American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Abstract: An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM) over the eastern United States during the summer of 2004. The refinements and adaptation of the CMAQ model for PM forecast applications will be discussed. The ability of the model to forecast the co-evolution of surface level ozone and PM pollution will be assessed through comparisons with regional ozone and continuous PM2.5 measurements from the AIRNOW system. Analyses of the strengths and weaknesses of the modeling system in representing the fine PM chemical constituents through comparisons with speciated measurements from the IMPROVE, CASTNet, and STN networks will be discussed. Preliminary comparisons of model forecasts with available aircraft measurements from the 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) field study will be presented.
The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.

PRESENTATION Modeling Photochemistry and Aerosol Formation in Point Source Plumes With the Cmaq Plume-in-Grid 01/10/2005
GODOWITCH, J. M. AND J. O. YOUNG. Modeling Photochemistry and Aerosol Formation in Point Source Plumes With the Cmaq Plume-in-Grid. Presented at 7th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry American Meteorological Society, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Abstract: Emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides from the tall stacks of major point sources are important precursors of a variety of photochemical oxidants and secondary aerosol species. Plumes released from point sources exhibit rather limited dimensions and their growth is gradual, being strongly governed by meteorological dispersion processes. However, in the typical regional Eulerian grid modeling framework, a point source plume is actually a subgrid scale feature since grid cell sizes are generally 20 km or greater. On the other hand, plume widths do not generally achieve this horizontal dimension for a considerable distance/time after being emitted. Consequently, point source emissions are subjected to excessive dilution when instantly mixed into the entire grid cell volume when the traditional Eulerian grid modeling approach is applied. Therefore, a plume-in-grid (PinG) technique has been integrated into the state-of-science Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) chemical transport model to specifically provide a realistic treatment of the dynamic and chemical/aerosol processes impacting pollutant concentrations in major point source plumes.
The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.


PRESENTATION The Emission Processing System for the Eta/Cmaq Air Quality Forecast System 01/10/2005
Pouliot, G. The Emission Processing System for the Eta/Cmaq Air Quality Forecast System. Presented at 85th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, January 09 - 13, 2005.
Abstract: NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of the major components of the linkage between these two models is the new pre-processor to CMAQ (PREMAQ). PREMAQ combines the functionality of the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) and portions of the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) processing system. This paper explains the emissions processing required for the AQF system, which is a major component of PREMAQ.
Ideally, real-time emissions data would be used in the real-time AQF system. However, EPA's National Emissions Inventory (NEI) is compiled on a 3-year basis and is not available until several years after the year of interest. For the 2004 ozone season, the most recently available NEI was 2001, and was based largely on the 1999 NEI with some growth and year specific 2001 information included. The 2001 NEI was used as the basis for developing the inventory used in the AQF system.

For the 2004 AQF system, we divided the emissions processing into two components: calculations that can be done a priori (independent of meteorological fields) and calculations that are done in real-time (dependent on meteorological fields). Of the four emission inventory components - area sources, point sources, mobile sources and biogenic sources - only area source calculations are completed a priori and were done outside of the AQF system and simply "merged" in real-time. Point Source and Mobile source emission processing are partially dependent on meteorological fields but also have components that are independent of meteorological fields. Emissions from point source were assumed to have a pre-determined temporal variability (similar to area sources) but the plume rise algorithm depends on wind speed and temperature and thus requires real-time meteorological fields. For point sources, only the plume rise algorithm and the "merging" of other information needed for point sources were included in PREMAQ.

For Mobile source emissions, which are a function of temperature, vehicle activity, and vehicle fleet information, there is a highly detailed emissions model for on-road sources (MOBILE6). However, it is too expensive and inefficient to use in the AQF system in real time. An efficient method for estimating mobile source emissions using the SMOKE/MOBILE 6 implementation was devised for the AQF system.

For Biogenic emissions, the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) was directly integrated into PREMAQ because it is very fast and is highly dependent on meteorological conditions.

The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.

This product is a conference presentation that was presented at the 85th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in San Diego, CA, January 9-13, 2005. CITATION: Pouliot, G. The Emission Processing System for the ETA/CMAQ Air Quality Forecast System. Presented at 85th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, January 9-13, 2005.

 

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