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Main Title Potential Climate-Induced Runoff Changes and Associated Uncertainty in Four Pacific Northwest Estuaries.
Author M. O. Steele; H. Chang; D. A. Reusser; C. A. Brown; I. W. Jung
CORP Author Geological Survey, Reston, VA.; Portland State Univ., OR.; National Health and Ecological Effects Research Lab., Newport, OR. Western Ecology Div.
Year Published 2012
Report Number USGS-OFR-2012-1274
Stock Number PB2013-107019
Subjects Climate change; Runoff; Esturaries; Pacific Northwest; Coastal regions; Environmental impact; Fresh water; Habitat; Hydrology; Precipitation; Rivers; Water resource management; Watersheds
Holdings
Library   Call Number Additional Info Location Date Modified
NTIS PB2013-107019 Most EPA libraries have a fiche copy filed under the call number shown. Check with individual libraries about paper copy. NTIS 11/19/2013
Collation 63p
Abstract As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Surveys Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (19711995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (20412065).
Supplementary Notes Prepared in cooperation with Portland State Univ., OR. and National Health and Ecological Effects Research Lab., Newport, OR. Western Ecology Div.
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PUB Date Free Form 2012
Category Codes 55C; 47D; 48B; 68
NTIS Prices PC A05
Document Type NT
Medium Open file rept
Control Number 120302200
Cataloging Source NTIS/MT
Origin NTIS
Type CAT