Global Change Impacts & Adaptation
Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership (Final Report)
As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration.
During the workshop, the experts developed ecosystem models and used a coding scheme to characterize (1) relationships among key physical and ecological variables that regulate ecosystem processes, (2) relative sensitivities of these relationships under current and future climate change scenarios, (3) degree of confidence about these relationships, and (4) implications for management. This report shows how climate-sensitive pathways can be identified and linked to management options for adaptation to climate change. Adaptation refers to the ways in which management actions can be modified to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. The results of this study are designed to support SFEP’s adaptation planning efforts as well as those of other estuary managers.
|Oct 2008||Stakeholder “kickoff” workshop, San Francisco|
|Mar 2010||Expert elicitation workshop, San Francisco|
|Sep 2011||EPA released the External Review Draft (SFEP) report for a 30-day public comment and review perod.|
|Mar 2012||EPA released the SFEP final report.|
A third volume, Lessons Learned, will be developed subsequent to publication of the first two volumes. This Volume III will compare the results of the two parallel assessments, explore synthetic conclusions, analyze the utility of the methodology for future use, and discuss potential improvements.
- (155 pp, 2 MB, about PDF)
- Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgment, Volume I: Results for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership (External Review Draft)
- Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Approach Using Expert Judgement, Volume II: Results for the Massachusetts Bays Program (Final Report)