Global Change Impacts & Adaptation
Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)
EPA announces the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.
This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The report has undergone internal, public, and external peer review.
This final report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines. A demographic model feeds population projections into another model that distributes new housing across the landscape. The scenarios cover the 48 contiguous U.S. states. The final report also describes the conversion of housing density to impervious surface cover and provides an initial analysis of changes in watersheds across the United States. Other analyses include regional trends in population growth and in housing density. This final report provides technical modeling details and describes potential next steps to integrate climate change variables into the model.
|Feb 2007||EPA hosted a workshop called EPA Workshop on Future Year Emissions Modeling and Land Use Change in RTP, NC.|
|Apr 2008||EPA conducted an internal review of draft report conducted April/May 2008.|
|Jul 2008||EPA released an external review draft for public review and comment.|
|Aug 2008||EPA hosted an internal workshop called Workshop on Using National Land-Use Scenarios to Examine Implications of Smart Growth and Other Strategies.|
|Oct 2008||Start of the external peer review of the draft report.|
|Jun 2009||EPA released the final report.|
|Sep 2010||EPA released ICLUS v.1.3 and the final users manual.|