EPA Regulatory Environmental Modeling - Region 2 – Empirical Load-Response Models Related to Eutrophication

Region 2 – Empirical Load-Response Models Related to Eutrophication
	This seminar will provide an analysis of eutrophication modeling that provided the basis for TMDLs for nitrogen in the Long Island Sound, and the expansion of that model to encompass the entire New York/New Jersey Harbor system. Featured Speakers include: Rosella O'Conner from EPA Region 2, and Mark Tedesco from EPA Regions 1 & 2, Robin Landeck from HydroQual, and Jim Latimer from ORD-NHEERL, Narragansett, RI. PowerPoint slides will be available by March 19, 2004 – email Elsie Sunderland (sunderland.elsie@epa.gov) if you would like to have these sent to you directly before the presentation.
Agenda
100-110	Welcome & Introduction to Regional Eutrophication Problem and Regional/Local Needs Relevant to Developing Solutions Rosella O'Conner, Region 2
110-135	Complex Water Quality Models Employed for Long Island Sound: LIS 3.0 and SWEM Robin L. Miller, Senior Project Manager, HydroQual Inc.
135-140	Questions and Discussion
140-205	Models Support for Developing a Nitrogen TMDL for Long Island Sound Mark A. Tedesco, Director, EPA Long Island Sound Office (Regions 1 & 2)
205-210	Questions and Discussion
210-235	Addressing the Need for Embayment Screening Tools and an Overview of ORD Model Development Efforts James S. Latimer, NHEERL, Atlantic Ecology Division (ORD)
235-300	Questions and Open Discussion
Presentations
	An Overview of Complex Water Quality Models Used in Long Island Sound The technical content of the LIS3.0 Model, the model used for the development of the Long Island Sound Nitrogen TMDL, will be described.Also described will be the application of the calibrated LIS3.0 model for producing a unit loading component response matrix and for conducting management scenario simulations.The technical advantages of a more comprehensive model, the System-Wide Eutrophication Model (SWEM), will be outlined.Work efforts currently in progress for incorporating SWEM results into the phased Long Island Sound TMDL approach will be discussed.Based on experience with the LIS3.0 and SWEM models, examples of the principles discussed in EPA’s Draft Guidance on the Development, Application and Use of Regulatory Environmental Models will be highlighted.The suitability of LIS3.0 and SWEM outputs for comparison to EPA’s Marine Dissolved Oxygen Criteria will be considered.In closing, some of the areas where the models could be improved as well as proposed future work will be identified.
	Application of Water Quality Models to Develop a Nitrogen TMDL for Long Island Sound Hypoxia is a common occurrence in Long Island Sound bottom waters during the late summer-usually from July through September.It is linked to an overabundance of nitrogen combined with the naturally occurring density stratification of the water column.Section 303(d)(1)(C) of the CWA and EPA’s implementing regulations (40CFR Part 130) require states to identify those waterbodies that do not meet water quality standards after application of the technology-based effluent limitations required by the Act.As a result, New York and Connecticut identified Long Island Sound as “water quality limited” due to hypoxia and a priority for developing a TMDL. To address the hypoxia problem, the Long Island Sound Study (LISS), a bi-state program focused on restoring and protecting the Long Island Sound ecosystem, has been proceeding with a phased approach to nitrogen reduction.Through the LISS, the states of New York and Connecticut completed and EPA approved the nitrogen Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) in 2001.The TMDL establishes a 58.5 percent reduction in nitrogen loads to the Sound over a fifteen-year period ending in 2014.The TMDL uses flexible and innovative approaches such as “bubble” management zones and exchange ratios for reallocating waste loads to achieve water quality standards.It also highlights the importance of sources of nitrogen from outside of the NY and CT portions of the watershed such as atmospheric deposition and tributary import. The development and implementation of the TMDL involve many facets of water programs.Revised marine dissolved oxygen criteria, water quality standards, watershed permits, compliance agreements, enforcement, modeling and monitoring, research, education and technical assistance, and water quality trading all come into play.This presentation will highlight the application of modeling results with other information (on cost, effects on living resources, and management opportunities) to develop and reassess the TMDL for Long Island Sound.
	Addressing the Need for Embayment Screening Tools and an Overview of ORD Model Development Efforts The U.S. EPA Atlantic Ecology Division (AED) has initiated a multi-year research program to develop empirical nitrogen load-response models. Our research on embayments in southern New England is part of a multi-regional effort to develop cause-effect models for the Gulf of Mexico, Pacific Northwest, and the Great Lakes as part of the National Aquatic Stressors Research Program. Models are under development using water quality indicators of hypoxia, food web attributes, and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). AED is evaluating 44 embayments along the coasts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern Massachusetts. Specifically, sediment profile imagery is used as an indicator of the intensity of hypoxia or anoxia. Food web change is assessed using airplane-mounted, remotely sensed chlorophyll-a as a biomass indicator for phytoplankton. The extent of SAV is determined by using airplane-mounted digital photography. The approach is based on statistical associations. Predictions will apply to the classes of systems used in the model development. By including systems with a wide range of nitrogen loadings and varying embayment characteristics, the applicability of the model increases. Preliminary data reveal a wide range of responses that appear to relate to nitrogen loads in the embayments. The field techniques and indicators used for the research program can be easily adapted and transferred to coastal environmental managers. Related Links: URL: www.longislandsoundstudy.net
Featured Speakers
	Robin L. Miller Senior Project Manager, HydroQual Inc. One Lethbridge Plaza Phone: 201-529-5151 rmiller@hydroqual.com Robin Landeck Miller, M.S. - Robin has more than fourteen years of experience in water quality modeling, mostly in the NY/NJ Harbor Estuary, New York Bight, Long Island Sound system.She is an Associate Scientist at HydroQual, Inc.Many of Robin’s professional endeavors have been devoted to the application of the System-Wide Eutrophication Model (SWEM) to address the management of nitrogen inputs to the East River and Long Island Sound.She was directly responsible for the development of SWEM including its construction, calibration/vaidation, code refinement, peer review (i.e. through a Model Evaluation Group (MEG) process), and the management of the supercomputer resources necessary to implement SWEM.Her previous experience with carbon production and cycling include a Master’s Thesis on the cycling or organic carbon through the microbial loop and higher trophic levels in a microcosm of Lake Bagsvaerd, Denmark, modeled using EPA’s Water Analysis Simulation Program (WASP).Currently, Robin is HydroQual’s project manager for the development of a contaminant fate and transport and bioaccumulation model of the NY/NJ Harbor Estuary for the Contaminant Assessment and Reduction Program (CARP).A key component of the CARP model which is under development is linking a sediment transport model with organic carbon production as calculated by SWEM.Robin has been an active participant in the EPA Region 2Harbor Estuary Program (HEP) Nutrient Workgroup which address nutrient issues for the Harbor, Bight, and Sound.
	Mark A. Tedesco Director, EPA Long Island Sound Office Government Center, Suite 6-5 888 Washington Blvd. Stamford, CT06904-2152 Phone: 203-977-1541 Fax: 203-977-1546 tedesco.mark@epa.gov Mark Tedesco has worked for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for 17 years.In 1989 he began working on the Long Island Sound Study, administered by EPA as part of the National Estuary Program under the Clean Water Act. In 1992 he became director of the newly established EPA Long Island Sound Office, responsible for completing the $16 million, multi-year program to identify and address remaining water quality impairments in the Sound.The study culminated in the 1994 approval of a Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for the Sound by the Governors of New York and Connecticut and the EPA Administrator.Mr. Tedesco is now responsible for continued oversight of the program with a focus on implementation of the management plan in cooperation with government and private agencies and organizations.Mr. Tedesco received his M.S. in marine environmental science in 1986 from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.
	James S. Latimer Research Scientist US EPA, Office of Research and Development National Health and Environment Effects Research Laboratory, Atlantic Ecology Division http://www.epa.gov/aed/ 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI 02882 Phone: 401-782-3167/3000 Fax: 401-782-3030 latimer.jim@epa.gov Dr. Latimer has had extensive experience in the field of marine biogeochemistry: the study of the sources, transport, fate, and effects of environmental pollution on marine systems. He has planned and executed major interdisciplinary studies involving the quantification of atmospheric inputs, freshwater sources, spatial and temporal distributions and ecological effects of nutrients, toxic organics, and metals in the coastal marine environment. He and his colleagues' work was one of the first to show nonpoint sources of pollution as significant to the coastal marine environment. Their research publications have been used by states and tribes to provide evidence of the effectiveness of nonpoint source controls of xenobiotic compounds. In addition, his experience in multiple aspects of the nature of marine environmental pollution has allowed him to contribute to many EPA and other governmental panels for the formulation of regulatory frameworks useful to the states/tribes and regional offices. He is currently engaged in research on the impacts of nutrients in the coastal marine environment in support of the development of numeric water quality criteria.