Region 1 - New England Regional
Modeling for Predicting Nutrient Levels in Streams and Mercury Levels
in Wildlife
This presentation will discuss two related New England regional GIS-based
regression models, SPARROW and MERGANSER, and their broad array of actual
and potential applications and linkages with other models. New England
SPARROW, which was developed collaboratively by USGS, EPA, and the New
England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEIWPCC), relates
total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) stream loads to contaminant
sources and watershed features and uses these relations to predict TP
and TN levels in unmonitored waters. Uses of the model include total
maximum daily load (TMDL), nutrient-criteria development, and estimation
of nutrient loadings to coastal waters. MERGANSER, which evolved out
of SPARROW and is being developed by a team of government and academic
researchers, will relate mercury levels in lake fish and fish-eating
birds to contaminant sources and watershed features. This model will
be used to predict mercury levels in fish and bird tissue and the probability
of exceeding FDA and EPA criteria in lakes throughout New England, including
those with no available tissue data.
Featured Speakers include:
Dr. Alison Simcox from EPA Region 1, Dr. Henry (Hal) Walker
from ORD-NHEERL, Narragansett, RI, and Keith Robinson from
US Geological Survey, NH/VT District, Pembroke, NH.
Please email Elsie Sunderland (sunderland.elsie@epa.gov)
to receive a copy of the Power Point slides before the presentation.
Agenda
100-110
Welcome to Regional Seminar
Series & Introductions
Elsie Sunderland, Council for Regulatory Environmental
Modeling
110-120
Regional
Modeling Overview
Jeri
Weiss and Alison Simcox, Region 1
120-145
Conceptual Design and Development of New England
SPARROW and MERGANSER Models - Building Partnerships and Integrating
Data
Dr.
Alison Simcox, Office of Ecosystem Protection, EPA Region 1
145-150
Questions
and Discussion
150-215
Using the New England SPARROW Model Results to
Assist with Coastal Water Assessment and Management
Dr. Henry
(Hal) Walker, EPA/ORD-NHEERL, Narragansett, RI
215-220
Questions
and Discussion
220-245
The MERGANSER Model - A tool for characterizing
fish tissue mercury levels and wildlife effects in lakes throughout
New England
Keith Robinson, Director, NH/VT Water Science
Center, Pembroke, NH
245-300
Questions
and Open Discussion
Presentations
Conceptual Design and Development of New England
SPARROW and MERGANSER Models - Building Partnerships and Integrating
Data
SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes), which was developed by the USGS (Smith and others, 1993 and 1997), uses regression equations to relate measures of water-quality conditions to pollution sources and watershed characteristics. National SPARROW models have been used to estimate nutrient concentrations, yields, and transport in watersheds (hydrologic cataloging units) throughout the United States (USGS (Smith and others, 1993 and 1997). The original (1999) objectives for developing SPARROW models for New England were (1) to evaluate results from the national models for New England, and (2) to develop a New England-specific model using regional data to provide "needed and consistently-produced information for key action items in the Clean Water Action Plan", such as establishing numeric criteria that reflect the different types of waterbodies and ecoregions of New England, prioritizing watersheds for protection and restoration, and evaluating the linkage of air emissions to water-quality impacts at a regional level.
From the initial idea of the regional model, it was clear that its realization required building partnerships between state, interstate, and EPA offices, and obtaining funds from several sources. Ultimately, funds were obtained from regional and national TMDL and nutrient-criteria programs, as well as from the Long Island Sound (LIS) program.
Evaluating the national model first made it fairly easy to show the
need for and specific types of information that could be gained by developing
a regional model. For example, the national SPARROW model had a variably
coarse stream network for New England resulting from use of RF1 data
at a scale of 1:500,000. The New England SPARROW model would result
in the development of a corrected National Hydrography Dataset (NHD)
for the region at a scale of 1:100,000 (about 42,000 stream reaches),
with associated high-resolution watersheds. In addition to an improved
regional model, these and other enhanced data layers produced from the
SPARROW project clearly had potential for use in future projects, adding
considerably to the project's cost effectiveness.
Success of New England SPARROW suggested that similarly formulated
models could be used for regional assessments of other widespread contaminants,
such as mercury. The key to adopting a SPARROW approach to mercury was
viewing fish-tissue data from lakes as the dependent variable analogous
to water-quality data from river monitoring stations. The other key
was to view the mercury model as a risk model rather than a transport
model. Specifically, the proposed mercury model would not simulate mercury
transport in streams as the SPARROW model does for nutrients, but rather
would predict fish-tissue mercury levels (in yellow perch equivalent
concentrations) or the potential to exceed health advisory criteria
in any given lake in New England.
Since 2002, EPA New England has assembled a team of mercury researchers
from federal, regional, and state agencies and from academic institutions
to help develop this model (now called the MERGANSER model for MERcury
Geo-spatial AssessmeNtS for the New England Region), and has expanded
the model concept so that, in addition to fish, it should be possible
to predict mercury levels in piscivorous birds (in standardized "loon
tissue units"). Until recently, an incremental funding approach
has been used. However, the recent award of an EPA Advanced Monitoring
Initiative grant will allow the model to be completed on an expedited
schedule..
Using New England SPARROW Model Results
to Assist with Coastal Water Assessment and Management
This
presentation will provide an overview of the National Coastal Assessment
(NCA) program and discuss how the combination of NCA results can be
used in conjunction with SPARROW model results, in informing management
decisions in two estuaries. The presentation will focus on two case
studies: Great Bay, Piscataqua, NH, and in Narragansett Bay. Finally,
a description of how results from SPARROW modeling can be used to inform
plans for a National Water Quality Monitoring Network, with portions
of the network supported by USGS (on the land side), EPA (in the estuaries)
and NOAA (for the ocean side) will also be discussed..
The MERGANSER Model
- A tool for characterizing fish tissue mercury levels and wildlife
effects in lakes throughout New England
Many fish in New England lakes and streams have mercury levels that are unsafe for human consumption, and as a result, all six New England states have issued statewide fish-consumption advisories. Data also show elevated mercury levels in many fish-eating birds (such as loons), which can affect behavior and cause physiological defects, reduced fertility, or mortality. States, academia, regional organizations and the federal government have been active in reducing mercury releases to New England's environment, and understanding the effects of mercury on the environment. Because of these efforts, a variety of rich data sets are present that can allow for additional research on understanding the fate of mercury on ecosystems in the region.
The MERGANSER (MERcury Geo-spatial AssessmeNtS For the New England
Region) is designed to link multiple data sets to make statistical predictions
of concentrations of mercury in fish tissue from lakes throughout New
England. The model will utilize existing regional knowledge on factors
that are thought to influence fish tissue concentrations, such as ecosystem
features (stream density, watershed size, amount of wetlands, water
chemistry), and mercury sources (point sources, and local and regional
emission patterns of mercury deposition) These "predictor"
data sets will then be related to mercury fish tissue concentration
data. Finally, the predictions of mercury in fish tissue will be linked
to established models that characterize population level effects at
a wildlife endpoint (loons). If the MERGANSER model develops as envisioned,
the model could also be used to quantify how mercury emissions and releases
relate to mercury levels in aquatic
Featured Speakers
Alison C. Simcox, Ph.D.
Air
Programs Branch
EPA Region 1
1 Congress Street, Suite 1100 (CAQ)
Boston, MA 02114
Voice: (617) 918-1684
Fax: (617) 918-0684
Email: simcox.alison@epa.gov
Alison
Simcox has over twenty years of professional experience in private industry,
academia, and government. She has specialties in both hydrology and
air quality. At EPA, she has worked in hazardous waste (RCRA), water
(TMDL) and air programs. She served as the Region 1 TMDL Coordinator
for four years before taking her current job in the Air Programs Branch.
Dr. Simcox is currently the Region 1 Specialist for the Particle Pollution
and Emissions Trading (CAIR) Programs. She had a primary role in the
development of the New England SPARROW model, and she and Keith Robinson
of the USGS, developed the initial concept for the MERGANSER model.
Dr. Simcox received BA and BS degrees from the University of Massachusetts
in Amherst, an MS degree in Hydrology from the New Mexico Institute
of Mining and Technology, and a PhD in Environmental Engineering from
Tufts University. She is also a member of Tau Beta Pi, a national Engineering
honor society.
U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency
National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
National Coastal Assessment: Northeast Coordinator
Atlantic Ecology Division
27 Tarzwell Drive
Narragansett, R.I. 02882
Computer Lab: (401) 782-9667
Fax: (401) 569-5605
Email: walker.henry@epa.gov
Hal is a biological oceanographer and statistician with expertise in
ecological risk assessment. Recent research has involved developing
and applying methods to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural
changes in coastal ecosystems for use in integrated assessments of the
joint effects in coastal receiving waters of anthropogenic changes in
nutrient loading, regional climate variability, and potential consequences
of regional climate change. He has received an M.S. in Marine Sciences
from the University of Mass, an M.S. in Experimental Statistics &
PhD in Biological Oceanography from the University of R.I. He has served
on the U.S. Steering Committee for Global Change Observing System, the
Steering Committee for Estuarine Research Federation Initiative in Biocomplexity,
and received a U.S. EPA Bronze Medal for the National Assessment Team
for production of the first U.S. National Assessment Report: "Climate
Change Impacts on the United States", 2001. He currently serves
as the Regional Coordinator for the National Coastal Assessment Program
in the Northeastern U.S.
Director, NH/VT
Water Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
361 Commerce Way
Pembroke, NH 03275
Voice: 603-226-7807
Fax: 603-226-7894
Email: kwrobins@usgs.gov
Keith Robinson
is currently the Director of the USGS New Hampshire-Vermont Water Science
Center. Previously he managed the hydrologic studies section of the
Water Science Center and was the Study Chief of the New England Coastal
Basins Study of the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program.
He began his career with USGS in 1988 working in the New Jersey office
on a variety of water-quality-related studies, including the original
SPARROW pilot effort. Prior to working for USGS, he spent 9 years with
the NJ Department of Environmental Protection doing water-quality planning
and assessments, including Section 305(b) reporting and Section 319
nonpoint source assessments. He has a degree in Natural Resource Management
from Rutgers.